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Published on 21/05/2019 12:02:37 PM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Aluminium trading range for the day is 143-149.8. - Kedia Commodities

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.8% at 31537 as strong U.S. economic data underpinned the dollar, boosting its safe-haven status over gold amid political and trade tensions. U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to a 15-year high in early May amid growing confidence over the economy's outlook, data showed. The dollar index was slightly higher, having booked its biggest weekly rise since early March last week supported by concerns about European parliamentary elections. Rekindled Sino-U.S. trade tensions have also seen the dollar mimicking its characteristics from last year when it was preferred over gold as a safe-haven hedge. In the Middle East, Iran was served a new warning by U.S. President Donald Trump who tweeted that if the country wanted to fight, that would be its "official end". The heightened rhetoric follows last week's attacks on Saudi oil assets and the firing of a rocket on Sunday into Baghdad's heavily fortified "Green Zone" that exploded near the U.S. embassy. Hedge funds and money managers also raised their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Gold was sold at a discount in the week in India for the first time in 2-1/2 months as higher prices deterred jewellers and retail buyers, while currency fluctuations and economic worries triggered caution amongst buyers in other Asian hubs. Dealers offered a discount of about $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, versus a premium of $2.5 last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.03% to settled at 7205, now Gold is getting support at 31383 and below same could see a test of 31228 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31686, a move above could see prices testing 31834.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 31228-31834.

* Gold prices fell as strong U.S. economic data underpinned the dollar, boosting its safe-haven status over gold amid political and trade tensions.

* U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to a 15-year high in early May amid growing confidence over the economy's outlook, data showed.

* Hedge funds and money managers also raised their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.

               

Silver               

Silver on MCX settled down -0.56% at 36371 as the U.S. dollar surged following the release of data that showed U.S. consumer sentiment was at a 15-year high. The US dollar index advanced to its highest level in two weeks near 98 as the heavy selling pressure surrounding the major European currencies allowed investors to return to the relatively safer greenback. The euro was hurt last week by Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's comments that European Union rules harm his country.  Sterling fell to the lowest since January 15 after cross-party Brexit talks collapsed and concern grew about the impact Prime Minister Theresa May's likely resignation would have on Britain's exit from the EU. Reports that China’s state-run media expressed impatience over the progress of trade negotiations with Washington also supported the dollar. The bullion's weakness was also due to a recovery in global stocks after the U.S. officially announced that it would delay a decision on imposing tariffs on imports of cars from Japan and European countries. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in May climbed to 102.4, a 15-year high, from April’s reading of 97.2. The reading for May compared to the expected 97.5. A tight jobs market helped fuel confidence, with an unemployment rate of just 3.6% in April. The University of Michigan points out that the gains were recorded before the trade negotiations with China collapsed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.79% to settled at 28728 while prices down -206 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 36164 and below same could see a test of 35957 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36514, a move above could see prices testing 36657.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 35957-36657.

* Silver dropped as the U.S. dollar surged following the release of data that showed U.S. consumer sentiment was at a 15-year high.

* Reports that China’s state-run media expressed impatience over the progress of trade negotiations with Washington also supported the dollar.

* Pressure also seen after the U.S. officially announced that it would delay a decision on imposing tariffs on imports of cars from Japan and European countries.

               

Crudeoil               

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.01% at 4400 as firmness in rupee weighed despite OPEC indicated it will likely maintain production cuts that have helped support prices this year, while tensions continued to escalate in the Middle East. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there was consensus among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil producers to drive down crude inventories “gently” but he would remain responsive to the needs of a “fragile market.” United Arab Emirates (UAE) Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei earlier told reporters that producers were capable of filling any market gap and that relaxing supply cuts was not “the right decision.” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak earlier said an easing of cuts had been discussed and the supply situation would be clearer in a month, including from countries under sanctions. Another bullish signal was a second week of declines in U.S. drilling operations, with energy companies cutting oil rigs to the lowest since March 2018. Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing two main scenarios for a meeting of OPEC and its oil-producer allies in June and both frameworks propose increased crude output from the second half of 2019, two sources familiar with the matter said. Russia wants to ease the cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) being carried out by the so-called OPEC+ alliance, the sources said. The United States has also urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost supply. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 153.06% to settled at 11967 while prices down -45 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4360 and below same could see a test of 4321 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4454, a move above could see prices testing 4509.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4321-4509.

* Crude oil dropped as firmness in rupee weighed despite OPEC indicated it will likely maintain production cuts that have helped support prices this year

* Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there was consensus among the OPEC and allied oil producers to drive down crude inventories “gently”.

* Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak earlier said an easing of cuts had been discussed and the supply situation would be clearer in a month.

               

Naturalgas               

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 0.54% at 187.1 due to a steep drop in production and on forecasts power generators would burn more gas than previously expected to produce electricity to meet higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to a six-month low of 86.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Sunday from 89.3 bcfd on Saturday due to big declines mostly in West Virginia and the offshore Gulf of Mexico. U.S. gas speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long positions last week for an eighth week in a row for the first time since January, betting prices will decline as utilities use what had been growing amounts of production to refill storage caverns to normal levels by the start of the 2020/2021 winter heating season. Speculators in four major NYMEX and ICE markets cut their bullish bets by 1,076 contracts to 41,826 in the week to May 14, the lowest since May 2016. As the weather warms faster than previously expected, projected demand in the Lower 48 states would reach 76.6 bcfd next week, up from the 76.3 bcfd it forecast on Friday. That compares with an expected 77.0 bcfd this week. U.S. dry natural gas production will rise to an all-time high of 90.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2019 from a record high of 83.40 bcfd last year, the Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.24% to settled at 4307, now Naturalgas is getting support at 184.5 and below same could see a test of 182 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 189, a move above could see prices testing 191.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 182-191.

* Natural gas climbed due to a steep drop in production and on forecasts power generators would burn more gas than previously expected.

* Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to a six-month low of 86.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 89.3 bcfd.

* U.S. gas speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long positions last week for an eighth week in a row for the first time since January, betting prices will decline.

               

Copper              

Copper on MCX settled down -1.35% at 422.45 as investors remained wary about the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Prices remained under pressure after an increase as the US dollar rose on the escalated US-China trade dispute. The Chinese yuan weakened to near the key 7-per-dollar level, and a defence of the 7 level would underpin copper prices. Sufficient supplies in the spot market will keep premiums below 60 yuan/mt.  Copper stocks across Shanghai bonded areas fell 3,000 mt from a week ago to stand at 582,000 mt as of Friday May 17, data showed. Bonded copper stocks extended their declines as cargoes entered the domestic market in an open arbitrage window. With low Yangshan premiums pointing to weak demand, imported copper that entered the domestic market was limited. Sufficient supplies and a rebound in futures prices grew destocking inclination across spot copper sellers in Shanghai. Spot copper offers stood mostly flat to a premium of 70 yuan/mt against the SHFE front-month June contract, compared with a premium up to 120 yuan/mt on the previous trading day. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in May climbed to 102.4, a 15-year high, from April’s reading of 97.2. The reading for May compared to the expected 97.5. A tight jobs market helped fuel confidence, with an unemployment rate of just 3.6% in April. The University of Michigan points out that the gains were recorded before the trade negotiations with China collapsed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.15% to settled at 16394 while prices down -5.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 419.6 and below same could see a test of 416.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 425.4, a move above could see prices testing 428.3.      

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 416.7-428.3.

* Copper prices dropped as investors remained wary about the intensifying U.S.-China trade war.

* Prices remained under pressure after an increase as the US dollar rose on the escalated US-China trade dispute.

* The Chinese yuan weakened to near the key 7-per-dollar level, and a defence of the 7 level would underpin copper prices.

               

Zinc               

Zinc on MCX settled down -1.23% at 212.7 as investors tried to catch their breath following another week of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has called on Washington to show "sincerity" if it is to hold meaningful trade talks, after the United States put China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker, on a trade blacklist. The dispute has fuelled fears of a further global economic slowdown and weak demand for industrial metals. Rising zinc stocks at LME warehouses and expectations of increased output by Chinese smelters have pulled down prices of the metal. U.S. President Donald Trump said his tariffs on Chinese goods are causing companies to move production out of China to Vietnam and other countries in Asia, and added that any agreement with China cannot be a “50-50” deal. China’s scrap metal importers expect disruptions in shipments to start this month because of uncertainty surrounding new scrap restrictions starting in July, depriving the China’s economy. The United States struck deals on Friday to lift tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada and Mexico, the three governments said, removing a major obstacle to legislative approval of a new North American trade pact. The US dollar index advanced to its highest level in two weeks near 98 as the heavy selling pressure surrounding the major European currencies allowed investors to return to the relatively safer greenback. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.05% to settled at 3271 while prices down -2.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 211.2 and below same could see a test of 209.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.8, a move above could see prices testing 216.7.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Zinc trading range for the day is 209.5-216.7.

* Zinc dropped as investors tried to catch their breath following another week of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.

* Rising zinc stocks at LME warehouses and expectations of increased output by Chinese smelters have pulled down prices of the metal.

* China’s scrap metal importers expect disruptions in shipments to start this month because of uncertainty surrounding new scrap restrictions starting in July

               

Nickel               

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.95% at 837.5 after an increase as the US dollar rose on the escalated US-China trade dispute. The Chinese yuan weakened to near the key 7-per-dollar level, and a defence of the 7 level would underpin prices. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 2.46 million tonnes in 2019 versus 2.33 million in 2018, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said. At the same time, global output of nickel is expected to rise to 2.38 million tonnes in 2019 compared with 2.18 million tonnes in 2018, the Lisbon-based group said. China’s scrap metal importers expect disruptions in shipments to start this month because of uncertainty surrounding new scrap restrictions starting in July. The United States struck deals to lift tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada and Mexico, the three governments said, removing a major obstacle to legislative approval of a new North American trade pact. The US dollar index on Friday advanced to its highest level in two weeks near 98 as the heavy selling pressure surrounding the major European currencies allowed investors to return to the relatively safer greenback. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in May climbed to 102.4, a 15-year high, from April’s reading of 97.2. A tight jobs market helped fuel confidence, with an unemployment rate of just 3.6% in April. The University of Michigan points out that the gains were recorded before the trade negotiations with China collapsed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.48% to settled at 10032, now Nickel is getting support at 830.3 and below same could see a test of 823.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 842.3, a move above could see prices testing 847.1.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 823.1-847.1.

* Nickel prices dropped after an increase as the US dollar rose on the escalated US-China trade dispute.

* The Chinese yuan weakened to near the key 7-per-dollar level, and a defence of the 7 level would underpin prices.

* Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 2.46 million tonnes in 2019 versus 2.33 million in 2018, the International Nickel Study Group said.

               

Aluminium               

Aluminium on MCX settled down -2.64% at 145.45 as demand will further weaken as the auto market struggles to clear inventories of modals under old emission standards. Prices also seen pressure as the US reached a deal to lift steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico. With less than two months to go before some Chinese provinces and cities implement tougher vehicle emission standards, prices of secondary aluminium in China are likely to see more downside as demand will further weaken as the auto market struggles to clear inventories of modals under old emission standards. The Chinese government will require all light vehicles to adhere to tougher “China VI” emission standards by July 2020 as part of efforts to combat pollution. In face of increasingly heavier environmental pressure, the new standards will go into effect in July 2019 in certain prominent areas such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. Automobiles are the major consumer of secondary aluminium alloy. The secondary aluminium market has already taken a hit from sluggish auto sales. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed that auto sales in China in January-April declined 12.1% from a year ago, 0.8 percentage points larger than the drop in January-March. According to the report from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment improved substantially in the month of May, thanks to a spike in consumer expectations. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.68% to settled at 1084 while prices down -3.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 144.2 and below same could see a test of 143 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 147.6, a move above could see prices testing 149.8.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 143-149.8.

* Aluminium dropped as demand will further weaken as the auto market struggles to clear inventories of modals under old emission standards.

* Prices also seen pressure as the US reached a deal to lift steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

* With less than two months to go before some Chinese provinces and cities implement tougher vehicle emission standards.

               

Mentha oil               

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 3.38% at 1444.6 amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market. Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices. However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn in 2019 from 33,000-35,000 tn last year. This year, sowing of the crop started towards the end of last month, a couple of weeks later than usual due to extended cold weather in all major growing regions. Official data on mentha, with respect to sowing or production and export, is not available as trade in the commodity is tightly controlled by a few. This season, the area under mint is expected to be 250,000-265,000 ha. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1563.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.24.70/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.79% to settled at 440 while prices up 47.2 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1414.1 and below same could see a test of 1383.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1463.2, a move above could see prices testing 1481.7.              

Trading Ideas:   

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1383.5-1481.7.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1563.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.24.70/-.

* Menthaoil settled up amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.

* Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices.

* However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.

               

Soyabean               

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.51% at 3696 on reports of higher stocks with traders and stockists and weak demand of soymeal. Millers and traders had stocks of nearly 19 lakh tons of mustard seed as on May 1, as per data from SOPA. Out of total arrivals of 81 lakh tons, millers crushed 62 lakhs tons soybean during October-April, data showed. Moreover, anticipation of meal demand due to higher tariff by US on China. Monsoon rains are likely to enter India through the southern coast on June 6, the weather office said, marking the start of the four-month rainy season that is crucial for the country's farm-dependent economy. Monsoon rains are likely to set over the Kerala coast on June 6, the state-run India Meteorological Department said in a statement. USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year. As SEA, soymeal exports are revised higher to 13.58 lt, up 14.3% in 2018/19. SEA revised March 2018 exports figures to 2.15 lt which is highest single month exports in last 26 months. As per latest SOPA press release, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Apr period pegged at 81 lt, up by 21.8% on year. Until April, country crushed about 62 lt of soybean compared to 55.5 lt last year for same period. As per SOPA, availability of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports of about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year.  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -48 Rupees to 3819 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically now Soyabean is getting support at 3657 and below same could see a test of 3617 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3735, a move above could see prices testing 3773.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3617-3773.

* Soyabean settled down on reports of higher stocks with traders and stockists and weak demand of soymeal.

* Millers and traders had stocks of nearly 19 lakh tons of mustard seed as on May 1, as per data from SOPA.

* Out of total arrivals of 81 lakh tons, millers crushed 62 lakhs tons soybean during October-April, data showed.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -48 Rupees to 3819 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

Soyaoil               

Ref.Soyaoil traded in range due to higher stocks at port and expectation of higher imports. Weak support in physical at higher levels and cut in tariff value which would make imports cheaper also put pressure on prices. However, downtrend is seen limited due to tight stocks and hopes of fresh demand for festival and marriage seasons. In a fortnightly notification, Government cut tariff value of crude soy oil by 18 dollar to $693 per tn for the 2nd half of April. Export of oilmeals rose by 31 per cent to Rs 6,222 crore during the last fiscal year on higher volumes as well as price realisation, industry data showed. The country had exported oilmeals worth Rs 4,762 crore during the 2017-18 fiscal, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) data. According to monthly report released by SEA, Soyoil import jumped by 154.5% to 2.92 lt in March compared to 1.15 lt last year same month. Overall, imports are higher by 19.5 for the period of Nov-Mar at 9.88 lt. According to monthly report released by SEA, soy oil import jumped by 64.7% to 2.20 lt in February compared to 1.34 lt last year same month. Overall, imports are lower by 2.31% for the period of Nov-Feb at 6.95 lt. USDA FAS in its latest GAIN report forecast India soyoil production at 17.22 lakh tonnes in 2018/19, up by 14.2% forecast by official USDA while Soyoil imports are pegged at 36 lt Vs 34 lt by USDA.  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 755.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 737 and below same could see a test of 734 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 742, a move above could see prices testing 744.

Trading Ideas:   

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 734-744.

* Ref.Soya oil traded in range due to higher stocks at port and expectation of higher imports.

* Weak support in physical at higher levels and cut in tariff value which would make imports cheaper also put pressure on prices.

* However, downtrend is seen limited due to tight stocks and hopes of fresh demand for festival and marriage seasons.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 755.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

               

Crude palm Oil               

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.21% at 525.3 pressured by worries over U.S.-China trade relations and bearish sentiment due to higher-than-forecast output in April weighed. The Malaysian data showed that April stock levels fell 6.6% to a sixth-month low of 2.73 million tonnes while output declined to 1.65 million tonnes, down 1.4% from March. Exports rose 2% to 1.65 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil exports for May 1-10 rose by between 6.4% and 14.4% from the same period in April, according to data. Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil, eased to a six-month low at the end of April, official data showed, as exports edged up amid falling production. Stockpiles at the end of April stood at 2.73 million tonnes, down 6.6% from the previous month, its second straight monthly drop, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Falling production contributed to the reduction in stocks. The MPOB data showed output fell 1.4% from the previous month to 1.65 million tonnes in April. Malaysian palm stocks are expected to hover around 3 million tonnes for the rest of the year, as improved yields from good weather and new plantings come into fruition this year and exports remain flat, whose estimates range between 2.7-3.4 million tonnes.  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.08% to settled at 3358 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 522.6 and below same could see a test of 520 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 527.3, a move above could see prices testing 529.4.      

Trading Ideas:   

* CPO trading range for the day is 520-529.4.

* Crude palm oil dropped pressured by worries over U.S.-China trade relations and bearish sentiment due to higher-than-forecast output in April weighed.

* The Malaysian data showed that April stock levels fell 6.6% to a sixth-month low of 2.73 million tonnes while output declined to 1.65 million tonnes.

* Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil, eased to a six-month low at the end of April.

* Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 4.40 rupees and settled at 523.40 rupees.

               

Mustard Seed               

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.1% at 3905 as demand from millers was weak in physical market amid increase in arrivals. Nafed will not sell mustard at a discount after the ongoing procurement season; rather it may sell the oilseed at a profit. Mustard output may be lower than earlier estimates due to adverse weather conditions during March. National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) purchased nearly 3.37 lakh tons of mustard seeds in Rajasthan, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. This quantity is small as the operative agency has announced to procure 20 lakh tons of seed this season as against nearly 9 lakh tons last season. India's 2018-19 mustard seeds output is projected at 8.4 million tons-a record. All India mustard crop arrivals in the second week of April is reported at 2.07 Lakh MT which is 40.81 percent higher than the last year arrivals of 1.47 Lakh MT in the same time periods. Higher arrivals are due to higher production estimate this year. According to the latest report of SEA, all India mustard production for 2018-19 is estimated at 8.5 million MT which is around 18.88 per cent higher than last year production estimate of 7.15 million MT. Higher production estimate is due t0 higher sowing acreage and favourable weather condition in major producing states. USDA revised its production forecast by 21% to 80 lt in April monthly report from 66 lt last month.  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -45.05 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Rmseed is getting support at 3879 and below same could see a test of 3854 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3927, a move above could see prices testing 3950.             

Trading Ideas:   

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3854-3950.

* Rmseed dropped as demand from millers was weak in physical market amid increase in arrivals.

* Nafed will not sell mustard at a discount after the ongoing procurement season.

* European rapeseed production revised down to 18 million tonnes in 2019.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -45.05 Rupees to end at 4025 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Turmeric               

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.45% at 7136 on improving demand from the up-country markets amid new season crops. Prices also seen pressure amid increase in turmeric arrivals in all the markets of Erode.  Currently, buyers are active in the spot amid supply of new crop. The new turmeric supply in Andhra Pradesh Duggirala market has already started. However, the quantity is on the lower side because the farmers are not getting remunerative prices. Old crop turmeric stocks with traders are expected around 20 lakh bags across the country. Worries over El Nino conditions have eased and there are indications of another year of robust monsoon rain, according to the latest assessment by the country’s weather office. There were also concerns that drought conditions and cold weather will affect the crop production.  CPI Guntur district secretary J Ajay Kumar has demanded that the Central government to purchase turmeric at Rs10,000 per quintal. He submitted a memorandum to the Spices Board officials to this effect in Guntur city. He said the cost of cultivation of turmeric has increased and the farmers are not getting a remunerative price for their produce. As per Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of January, down 11.4% y/y to 7,774 tonnes (Vs 8,773 t). However, for Apr-Jan period exports up 18% at 1.10 lakh tonnes compared to 93,350 tonnes last year for the same period.  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6668.75 Rupees gained 30 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.51% to settled at 14720, now Turmeric is getting support at 7060 and below same could see a test of 6986 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7198, a move above could see prices testing 7262.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6986-7262.

* Turmeric prices rallied on improving demand from the up-country markets amid new season crops.

* However, upside seen limited amid increase in turmeric arrivals in all the markets of Erode. 

* However, the quantity is on the lower side because the farmers are not getting remunerative prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6668.75 Rupees gained 30 Rupees.

               

Jeera              

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.22% at 17765 on profit booking after prices gained on the back of rising physical and export demand despite of higher availability of crop this season. Overall due to higher availability this season, exports demand will play a major role in prices movement. All India jeera arrivals is reported at 23.96 thousand MT which is around 198.75 per cent higher than the last year arrivals of 8.02 thousand MT in the same time period. Arrivals are higher as farmers are bringing their crop due to higher prevailing domestic prices. As per trade sources India is likely to have exported around 120,000 tonnes Jeera in April-December. As per market sources, Cumin seed production in Syria and Turkey is estimated to decline. Syria production is estimated around 25,000 tonnes this year as major part of their crop has been damaged and discoloured due to heavy rains. Turkey jeera production is estimated at 8,000 tonnes as rains have damaged 25 per cent of the crop. Demand from exporters and bulk buyers are activity buying in the market as they are expecting demand to increase in the coming months. According to the second advance estimates, production of Jeera in Gujarat in 2018-19 is expected to be lower by about 25 percent to 2.23 lakh MT compared to last year’s forecast of 2.97 lakh MT amid lower acreage in the state due to dry conditions during the sowing season and expected lower yield.  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 27.8 Rupees to end at 17800 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 17645 and below same could see a test of 17525 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17900, a move above could see prices testing 18035.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 17525-18035.

*Jeera settled down on profit booking after prices gained on the back of rising physical and export demand despite of higher availability of crop this season.

* Overall due to higher availability this season, exports demand will play a major role in prices movement.

* Arrivals are higher as farmers are bringing their crop due to higher prevailing domestic prices.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 27.8 Rupees to end at 17800 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Cotton               

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.19% at 21310 on short covering after prices dropped as imports of cotton increased due to estimates of reduced output this year. This is a reduction of six lakh bales from the association’s previous estimate of 321 lakh bales released last month, due to lower output in Maharashtra, North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. CAI’s April estimate lowers cotton crop estimate for 2018-19 season, which began on October 1, 2018, by two lakh bales for Maharashtra, compared to its March estimate. Like-wise, for the North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, CAI has lowered cotton output estimate by one lakh bales each. Cotton supply is dwindling quickly as 2018-19 crop is likely to be much lower than the initial projection of around 350 lakh bales. In 2018/19, cotton output is estimated at 300.9 l-bales (of 170 kg each), down about 7.4% compared to previous estimate of 324 l-bales as per latest govt Adv Est. CAI cuts 2018-19 production estimate further by 2 l-bales to 328 l-bales for the year 2018-19. However, higher imports of 27 l-bales (Vs 15) and lower exports of 50 lakh bales (Vs 69) for 2018/19 season is bearish. According to data compiled by DGCIS, country exported 95,712 tonnes (t) of cotton raw including wastes in Feb, down 20.8% compared to 148,948 t last year.  Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.63% to settled at 8359 while prices up 40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21170 and below same could see a test of 21040 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21390, a move above could see prices testing 21480.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21040-21480.

* Cotton gained on short covering after prices dropped as imports of cotton increased due to estimates of reduced output this year.

* Cotton supply is dwindling quickly as 2018-19 crop is likely to be much lower than the initial projection of around 350 lakh bales.

* In 2018/19, cotton output is estimated at 300.9 l-bales, down about 7.4%.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 80.00 rupees and settled at 21450.00 rupees. 

               

Chana               

Chana on NCDEX settled up by 1.13% at 4664 due to strong buying by the government agencies and tight supply. NAFED procured 261,953.94 tons of gram in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat under Price Support Scheme (PSS). India has issued a combined 6,50,000 tons import quota for pulses for the fiscal year to March 2020, a government order said, allowing overseas purchases. However, downside is limited as demand for gram is good in the spot market, while procurement by NAFED of fresh crop produce has lent support to the prices. In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area. Currently, chana attract 60% import duty since Mar 2018 which restricted imports. Chana, imports are down 85.1% to 1.43 lt in 2018/19 (Apr-Jan) compared to 9.58 lt last year, while exported are close to 2 lt of chana compared to 68,000 tonnes last year. According to the data, all India chana arrivals is reported at 1.53 lakh MT which is 15.46 per cent lower than the 1.81 lakh MT arrivals of chana in April 2019. According to latest report by NAFED, all India chana procurement for Rabi 2019 reached around 1.87 lakh MT. According to the second advance estimate released by government, chana production estimate for 2018-19 is 10.32 million MT which is 8.10percent lower than the 4th advance estimate of 11.23 million MT of 2017-18.  Technically now Chana is getting support at 4603 and below same could see a test of 4541 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4736, a move above could see prices testing 4807.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Chana trading range for the day is 4541-4807.

* Chana prices gained due to strong buying by the government agencies and tight supply.

* NAFED procured 261,953.94 tons of gram in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat under PSS

* India has issued a combined 6,50,000 tons import quota for pulses for the fiscal year to March 2020, a government order said.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 74.5 Rupees to end at 4574.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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