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Soybean futures jumps 3% on Monday to close at 3,793 rupees per 100 kg due to improving demand in the physical market coupled with expectation of good crushing demand on reports of hike in import duty on palm oil. Earlier, it was trading under pressure as monsoon revival, good supplies and lower demand for soymeal exports but increase suddenly on jump in edible oil prices. Government increase MSP price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year.
As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean is 112.5 lakh ha so far, up from last year acreage of 111.5 lakh ha. Area in MP improved so as in Maharashtra. As per SOPA, the arrivals of soybean this season is 94.25 lt compared to 80 lt last year. Soy meal exports provisionally down by 59% in July to 26,000 tonnes compared to last year. Similarly, exports in first 4-months of FY 2019/20 (Apr-Jul) are down by about 41.5% to 1.83 lt compared to 3 lt last year. In the 4th advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.83 lt vs 137.43 lt in 3rd estimate. USDA kept soybean output forecast unchanged at 109 lt in 2019/20 but down 5.2% y/y.
CBOT soybean on Monday recovered most losses suffered in the previous session supported by optimism among market participants that U.S.-China trade talks will continue despite recently escalated tensions. President Trump indicated late on Sunday that the Chinese had expressed interest in re-starting talks after his latest tariff move.
Soybean futures expected to trade sideways due to sufficient stocks with the millers and traders. Moreover, declining meal exports and may put extra pressure on Oilseeds. However, above normal rains may affect output for next season to support prices.
RMseed (Mustard seed)
NCDEX Mustard closed flat on Monday after it climb to 4-weeks high mainly of technical selling. It closes at 3,930 rupees per 100 kg. Last week, it hit strong resistance levels near 3970-3980 last week. Mustard output last year is pegged at 93.4 lakh tonnes in 4th Advance estimate by Government, up from 87.8 lt in 3rd estimate. Meanwhile, Nafed has commenced the sale of PSS Mustard seed rabi 2019-20 in Madhya pradesh from through NEML and MSTC portal. As per MOPA, mustard crushing increase 17% in July to 5.25% y/y. USDA maintain export forecast of rapemeal to 9 lt and output in 2019/20 at 77 lt (Vs 80 lt ) in its monthly report. As per SEA, rape meal exports also down 11% to 3.58 lt during the first four month of FY 19/20 compared to 4 lt last year. However, for July, Mustard meal exports were 19% higher y/y at 93,837 tn due to firm demand from South Korea.
Mustard futures expected to trade sideways to lower due to expectation of better crop next year due to good rains. Rapemeal exports have been steady against higher stocks. However, good demand for mustard oil and increase demand for mustard crush may keep prices supported.
Refine Soy Oil
Refined Soy Oil futures gain 1.2% on Monday to close at 761.60 rupees per 10 kg on report that government may increase cess on edible oil imports by about 5%. The trend looks positive due to weaker rupees and increase in tariff values. In a fortnightly notification, government increased tariff rate of crude soy oil by about 4.5% to $737 for 2nd half of Aug from 705 dollar earlier. According to monthly report released by SEA, Soyoil imports down 9.3% to 3.20 lt in Jul compared to 3.52 lt last year same month. Overall, imports are down 5.5% for the first nine months of OY 2018/19 (Nov-Jul) at 20.12 lt compared to last year same period.
Soy oil imports were down for the fourth consecutive month in July compared to last year while the import of refine palm oil increase more than 50% on year since November. As per latest as on 1st Aug., 2019 total stock at ports and in pipelines is reported at 19.50 lt down 19.4% on year. The stock were down 7.2% m/m. USDA kept domestic consumption and production unchanged to 51.50 lt and 17.1 lakh tonnes respectively for 2019/20 this month in its monthly report.
We expect Ref Soy oil may trade sideways to lower due to profit booking at higher levels. However, step increase in tariff rates dollars, lower stocks at ports and improving physical demand for the coming festival season may support prices. There are expectation of increasing imports in coming months to keep prices steady.
Crude Palm oil
MCX CPO edged higher on Monday tracking firm trend in Malaysian palm oil to close at 562,50 rupees per 10 kg. CPO is currently trading at 6-month high due to increasing demand coupled with higher tariff value. Moreover, lower stocks at port despite higher import volumes are also supporting prices. For 2nd half of Aug, tariff value for CPO and RBD Palmolein increases by 25 and 30 dollar to 527 and 570 dollar per ton. According to SEA monthly press release, palm oil exports up by 47.7% on year in July at 8.13 lt in July while overall palm oil imports are up by 13% on year at 69 lt during Nov-Jul period. Overall, CPO imports are higher in first 9-month of OY 2018/19 similarly refine palm oil imports are up by 40% at 20.90 lt compared to 14.95 lt.
Malaysian palm oil rose on Monday close higher for fifth straight session tracking a rally in rival oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Slower output data continued to lend support to sentiment in the palm market.
CPO futures expected to trade sideways to higher on firm international prices. Moreover, tariff duty hike and good physical demand in the domestic market is also supporting prices.
NCDEX Chana fell 2% on Monday and slipped to 10-month low due to higher supplies and steady physical demand to close at 4,023 rupees per 100 kg. For 2018/19, chana output forecast revised slightly higher at 101.30 lt in 4th advance estimate compared to 100.9 lt in 3rd advance estimate.
As per govt data, during first quarter of FY19-20, chana imports increase to 50,000 compared to only 13,500 t last year. However, imports were down by 84% to 1.86 lt in 2018/19 (Apr-Mar) compared to 9.81 lt last year, while exported are about 2.28 lt compared to 1.28 tonnes last year. NAFED is holding more than 12.8 lt of chana from last season. Currently, chana attract 60% import duty since Mar 2018 which restricted imports. In new season NAFED only procured about 7.76 lt compared to more than 23 lt last season.
Chana futures will trade mostly sideways as government agencies holding major portion of Chana. Moreover, good stocks with physical traders due to higher production this year are pressurizing the prices. Procurement of chana at MSP by NAFED is slow and may pick up in coming weeks.
Cotton / Kapas
MCX cotton closed unchanged at 20,950 rupees per bale after it slipped to the low of 20,650 levels. As per farm ministry report, acreage under cotton in the country up 6% at 123.5 lakh ha so far, up from 116.9 lakh ha from a year ago. As on 23th Aug, area in Gujarat under cotton is lagging last year at 26.3 lakh ha compared to 26.9 lakh ha last year.
USDA kept production forecast unchanged for India this month to 29 million bales while the consumption and Exports projections were down by 2% and 4.55% respectively for 2019/20 season. Trade data by Ministry of Commerce indicates that provisional shipments in the month of June 2019 are 88% lower at 60,000 (Vs 5 lakh bales) as compared to last year.
ICE cotton down over 1% on Monday tracking U.S.-China trade tensions coupled with expectation of slow demand due to economic slowdown. Cotton has fallen 21% so far this year as the U.S.-China trade war has hurt demand for the natural fiber. China is the world's top consumer of cotton, while the United States is one of the biggest producers.
MCX Cotton futures may trade sideways to lower due to weak international prices however improvement in physical demand may keep prices steady. Moreover, reports of higher imports and expectation of higher cotton this year also bearish for prices.
Jeera Sep futures edged higher on Monday due to short covering and close at 16, 925 rupees per 100 kg. However, balanced higher supply situation is keeping prices in a range and about 10% lower than last year levels. We have seen higher supplies, steady demand and lower exports is pressurizing the prices. As per, Agmarknet data arrivals of jeera in Gujarat is about 22,200 tn during 1-25 Aug compared to 12,000 tn last year same period. As per Commerce Ministry data, the Jeera exports down to 18,165 tn compared to 22,000 tn last year in June. Overall, the export of Jeera has dropped 6.4% in the first quarter of FY20 to 71,000 compared to 75,800 tn in the same period last fiscal.
Jeera futures expected to trade sideways as due to sufficient availability in the physical market pressurized prices at higher levels despite steady export demand. Prospects of good crop next season also pressurize the prices.
Turmeric futures traded on negative note to close at 6,726 rupees per 100 kg due to profit booking by market participants. The flood situations have improving after heavy rains in turmeric growing regions. There are reports of crop damage in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to heavy rains but now it is easing. Turmeric exports in first half of 2019, up by 5.1% to 66,300 tn compared to 63,000 tn. In 2018/19, output is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government. Exports to Iran have come to a standstill since May with the expiry of the US sanctions waiver to India for six months. Turmeric exports in June, down 16.22% y/y to 11,883 tn (Vs 14,183 tn), as per govt data The rain deficit in south peninsula down to currently at 5% above normal rains from about 30% deficit in July.
Turmeric futures expected to trade sideways due to revival of monsoon rains in turmeric growing areas. However, there is expectation of improvement in upcountry and export demand which may restrict any steep fall.
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