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Published on 19/08/2019 11:44:30 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Chana trading range for the day is 4274-4366 - Kedia Commodities

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.59% at 37938 as equities moved up on increased risk appetite amid hopes global central banks would step up stimulus to boost growth. The dollar remained fairly steady for much of the session and this contributed a bit to gold's weakness. A report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected slump in housing starts in the month of July. The report also showed a much bigger than expected increase in building permits. The report said housing starts tumbled by 4% to an annual rate of 1.191 million from the revised June estimate of 1.241 million. Limiting gold's momentum, global financial markets regained footing, as China hinted at more support for its economy, amid growing expectations of aggressive stimulus from all the major central banks. This comes after Beijing vowed to counter the latest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal. Investors will shift their focus to the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see about a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September. High prices prompted Asian consumers to sell back physical gold this week to lock in profits, though price dips still attracted buying as economic jitters burnished the metal's appeal as a haven from risk. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.02% to settled at 18359 while prices down -225 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 37688 and below same could see a test of 37439 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38203, a move above could see prices testing 38469.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 37439-38469.

* Gold prices drifted lower as equities moved up on increased risk appetite amid hopes global central banks would step up stimulus to boost growth.

* Prices remained under pressure after global financial markets regained footing, as China hinted at more support for its economy.

* Investors will shift their focus to the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week.

               

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -0.58% at 43824 as stocks and the dollar firmed, but fears of a slowing global economy and lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade war kept downside limited. Beijing had vowed to counter the latest tariffs on Chinese goods but called on Washington to meet it halfway on a potential deal. Data showing American consumers continued to splurge in July came as a relief to investors after the U.S. bond market sounded alarms of a recession. This week's inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has historically preceded several past U.S. recessions, has stoked fresh worries about the economic impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war. China vowed to counter the latest U.S. tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods, but U.S. President Donald Trump said any pact would have to be on America's terms, suggesting a resolution to the trade war remains elusive. Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2020 and had made the economy and his tough stance on China a key part of his 2016 campaign for the White House, said any agreement must meet U.S. demands. More protests are also expected in Hong Kong over the weekend, which could become a new geopolitical flashpoint and further complicate the U.S.-China trade war. The U.S. yield curve remains inverted for the second day running today, triggering an extensive flight to safety. The yield curve has inverted before each recession in the past half-decade. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.46% to settled at 12534 while prices down -255 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 43516 and below same could see a test of 43207 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44132, a move above could see prices testing 44439.      

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 43207-44439.

* Silver prices dropped as stocks and the dollar firmed, but fears of a slowing global economy and lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade war kept downside limited.

* Data showing American consumers continued to splurge in July came as a relief to investors.

* China vowed to counter the latest U.S. tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods.

               

Crude oil

Crude oil prices pared gains after OPEC issued a bearish outlook for the oil market this year and forecast a surplus in 2020. Prices gained this year thanks to supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+. OPEC provided a downbeat oil-market outlook for the rest of 2019 as economic growth slows and highlighted challenges in 2020 as rivals pump more, building a case to keep up an OPEC-led pact to restrain supplies. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) and indicated the market will be in slight surplus in 2020. The demand for OPEC crude will average 29.41 million bpd next year, OPEC said, down 1.3 million bpd from this year. Still, the 2020 forecast was raised 140,000 bpd from last month's forecast. In July, OPEC and its allies renewed a supply-cutting pact until March 2020, citing the need to avoid a build-up of inventories that could hit prices. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly for a second week in row as refineries cut output last week, while fuel inventories posted surprise drawdowns with gasoline demand hitting a record high, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 9, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrels. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.72% to settled at 9188, now Crude oil is getting support at 3852 and below same could see a test of 3808 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3952, a move above could see prices testing 4008.             

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3808-4008.

* Crude oil prices pared gains after OPEC issued a bearish outlook for the oil market this year and forecast a surplus in 2020.

* OPEC lowers 2019 global demand forecast to 1.1mbpd from 1.14mbpd, adds that oil market fundamentals seems somewhat bearish for the rest of 2019

* A Saudi official indicated more steps may be coming, saying: "Saudi Arabia is committed to do whatever it takes to keep the market balanced next year".

               

Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled up 2.42% at 156.3 ON a much smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand next week. However, upside seen limited on forecasts for less hot weather and lower cooling demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Prices mostly traded near multiyear lows since May because record production and mild spring weather allowed utilities to inject huge amounts of gas into storage, shrinking a massive inventory deficit and removing concerns about shortages this winter even though power demand and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are on track to hit all-time highs. The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as low as 33% below that average in March 2019. But with production expected to keep growing, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the end of the summer injection season on Oct. 31. Demand will slide to 87.7 bcfd during the week before the U.S. Labor Day holiday as the summer comes to an end even though pipeline and LNG exports are expected to rise. Gas production in the Lower 48 states, meanwhile, edged up to 91.7 bcfd on Thursday from a one-week low of 91.1 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an all-time high of 91.9 bcfd on Aug. 12. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.95% to settled at 12395 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 153.7 and below same could see a test of 151.2 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 158.7, a move above could see prices testing 161.2.               

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 151.2-161.2.

* Natural gas gained on a much smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand next week.

* However, upside seen limited on forecasts for less hot weather and lower cooling demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Demand will slide to 87.7 bcfd during the week before the U.S. Labor Day holiday as the summer comes to an end

               

Copper

Copper on MCX settled down -0.51% at 446 as the US-China trade war and the global demand slowdown continued to weigh on prices. China produced 801,000 mt of refined copper in July, up 4.8% from a year ago, after a year-over-year increase of 11.8% in June, showed data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This brought output in the first seven months of the year to 5.35 million mt, up 5.5% from the same period last year. China’s output of copper materials grew 2.2% from a year ago and stood at 1.69 million mt in July, slowing from a rise of 13.4% in June. Production of copper materials in January-July posted 11.29 million mt, up 8.9% year on year.  The US Treasury yield curve still hovered around the inversion point, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever. The US Commerce Department says retail sales rose a healthy 0.7% last month, after a 0.3% gain in June. Online retailers, grocery stores, clothing retailers and electronics and appliance stores all reported strong gains. Meanwhile, China vowed to counter the latest U.S. tariffs but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal. Copper stocks across Shanghai bonded areas this week continued their slide that began since May, data showed. Stocks shrank 11,000 mt from a week ago and 227,500 mt from April 26, to stand at 360,500 mt as of Friday August 16. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.34% to settled at 3794 while prices down -2.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 444.5 and below same could see a test of 443 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 448, a move above could see prices testing 450.  

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 443-450.

* Copper prices dropped as the US-China trade war and the global demand slowdown continued to weigh on prices.

* China produced 801,000 mt of refined copper in July, up 4.8% from a year ago, after a year-over-year increase of 11.8% in June.

* Copper stocks across Shanghai bonded areas this week continued their slide that began since May, data showed.

               

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -0.46% at 183.55 amid conflicting messages about the ongoing trade discussions between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump said that U.S. and Chinese negotiators were holding “productive” trade talks and expected them to meet in September. Meanwhile, China vowed to counter the latest U.S. tariffs but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal. Refined zinc metal production reached 5.39 million tons, down from 5.45 million tons the previous year. May production reached 1.12 million tons, up from 1.11 million tons in April. Refined production increases in Mexico and Peru were canceled out by declines in Canada, China, India and Russia. US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a delay in the imposition of a further 10% tariff on a number of Chinese goods until December 15, fueling hopes for a trade deal between the two countries. The International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported the total zinc deficit in the first five months of 2019 has ballooned to 123,000 tonnes, considerably higher than the previous year's deficit of 103,000 tonnes. The deficit emerged despite a 0.6% decline in global consumption and continues to reflect supply-side challenges for zinc. The focus now shifts to the Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chair Powell's comments will be closely watched for fresh hints on the interest rates outlook amid heightened concerns over the potential for a recession and an ongoing U.S.-China trade spat. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.84% to settled at 3298 while prices down -0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 182.6 and below same could see a test of 181.5 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 185, a move above could see prices testing 186.3.             

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 181.5-186.3.

* Zinc prices dropped amid conflicting messages about the ongoing trade discussions between the United States and China.

* US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a delay in the imposition of a further 10% tariff on a number of Chinese goods until December 15.

* China vowed to counter the latest U.S. tariffs but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal.

               

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.59% at 1138.6 on fears major producer Indonesia would bring forward an export ban of ore.US retail sales rose in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, which could help ease financial markets’ fears that the world’s largest economy was heading into recession. The Philippines’ top exporter of high-grade nickel ore is expected to shut its mining operations soon as ore deposits are nearly depleted, China produced 801,000 tonnes of refined copper in July, up 4.8% year-on-year, while alumina output was up 2.9% in the same period to 6.22 million tonnes, official data showed.  Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas held stable this week, as wider import losses and the end of concentrated arrivals deterred flows into or out of bonded warehouses. Data showed that stocks remained unchanged from a week ago, at 21,800 mt as of Friday August 16, after four consecutive weekly increases. Imported losses widened to an average of 7,000 yuan/mt this week. Most of the forward cargoes that were ordered when the arbitrage window was open arrived at Chinese ports during the second half of July to the start of August. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has seen a significant deterioration in the month of August, according to a preliminary report released by the University of Michigan. The report said the consumer sentiment index tumbled to 92.1 in August after inching up to 98.4 in July. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.82% to settled at 10649 while prices up 6.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1124.5 and below same could see a test of 1110.3 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1157.4, a move above could see prices testing 1176.1.      

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1110.3-1176.1.

* Nickel prices gained on fears major producer Indonesia would bring forward an export ban of ore.US retail sales rose in July.

* The Philippines’ top exporter of high-grade nickel ore is expected to shut its mining operations soon as ore deposits are nearly depleted.

* Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has seen a significant deterioration in the month of August, according to a preliminary report released by the University of Michigan.

               

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -0.14% at 140.9 as prices sidelined reflecting investors’ worries about muted economic growth and the temperamental trade dispute between the U.S. and China On the trade front, Hua Chunying, a spokesperson at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Beijing “hopes the US will meet China halfway and implement the consensus reached by the two leaders during their meeting in Osaka.” This came after China said it has to take necessary countermeasures for the latest US tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods. Inventories of aluminium billet in China shrank this week with a significant decline in stocks in Foshan city of south China’s Guangdong province. data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across five major consumption areas decreased some 2,200 mt from Thursday August 8 to stand at 93,700 mt as of Thursday August 15, after they climbed 12,500 mt in the previous week. Weighed down by uncertainty over how much weak global economic growth is undermining demand, but some metals saw support from potential shortages. “People are taking stock and trying assess what the next move is, not just for the economy and the trade war but for central banks around the world. A report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected slump in housing starts in the month of July. The report also showed a much bigger than expected increase in building permits. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.15% to settled at 1797 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 140.5 and below same could see a test of 140 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 141.5, a move above could see prices testing 142.          

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 140-142.

* Aluminium prices dropped as prices sidelined reflecting investors’ worries about muted economic growth.

* A report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected slump in housing starts in the month of July.

* Inventories of aluminium billet in China shrank this week with a significant decline in stocks in Foshan city of south China’s Guangdong province. 

               

Menthaoil

Menthaoil on MCX settled up 0.76% at 1323.3 as low level buying seen as demand season starts in August. As per Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (CIMAP) mentha sowing touched 3 lakh ha. Sowing witnessed a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. This led to a fall in prices. The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days, but also in Madhya Pradesh. Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Future demand of mentha oil is expected to rise as Colgate-Palmolive sees a rise in Sales by 4%; recorded net sales of Rs. 1,075.9 Crore for Q1. The company expects a pickup in rural demand over the coming quarters. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.34% to settled at 1183 while prices up 10 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1311.4 and below same could see a test of 1299.4 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1330.7, a move above could see prices testing 1338.         

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1299.4-1338.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1414.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.15.10/-.

* Menthaoil gained as low level buying seen as demand season starts in August.

* There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year.

* Due to improving exports prospects, estimates for ending stocks has been reduced even lower than previous year.

               

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down -0.9% at 3639 on late profit booking after prices seen supported by lower area under soybean in the Kharif sowing season so far.  Fears that moisture stress in some areas of Maharashtra may hit crop yield aided the sentiment. As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean is 107 lakh ha so far, down only 3 lakh ha from last year acreage of 109.5 lakh ha. Area in MP improved however in Maharashtra the area lower than last year. Government increase MSP price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year. China's soybean imports in July rose 8% from a year earlier, to their highest level in almost a year, customs data showed, as importers increased their purchases of Brazilian beans on higher crush margins. China took in 8.64 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up from 8 million in the same month last year, the General Administration of Customs said. Soymeal exports provisionally down by 59% in July to 26,000 tonnes compared to last year. Similarly, exports in first 4-months of FY 2019/20 (Apr-Jul) are down by about 41.5% to 1.83 lt compared to 3 lt last year. In the 3 rd advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.43 lt (Vs 109.33). USDA kept soybean output forecast unchanged at 109 lt in 2019/20 but down 5.2% y/y. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.55% to settled at 47050 while prices down -33 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3614 and below same could see a test of 3590 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3679, a move above could see prices testing 3720.      

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3590-3720.

* Soyabean dropped on late profit booking after prices seen supported by lower area under soybean in the Kharif sowing season so far.  

* Fears that moisture stress in some areas of Maharashtra may hit crop yield aided the sentiment.

* As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean is 107 lakh ha so far, down only 3 lakh ha from last year acreage of 109.5 lakh ha.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  16 Rupees to 3740 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

Soya oil

Ref.Soya oil on NCDEX settled down -0.32% at 756.7 on profit booking after prices gained tracking improving physical demand against lower stocks at the ports. With the monsoon picking up in central and western India, the planting of oilseeds has also picked up pace and has crossed 133.6 lakh hectares. Last year, sowing was on 140.9 lakh hectares, as per the latest data from the department of agriculture. Although there is a deficit of nearly 7 lakh hectares, senior industry people feel that the sowing should pick up with the monsoon gaining momentum and acreage should remain nearly the same. “Rains were delayed and therefore the sowing was delayed. But sowing has gained pace and from just 75 lakh hectares on July 11, the acreage has nearly doubled reaching 134 lakh hectares,” said BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). In a fortnightly notification, government increased tariff rate for soyoil to $705 for 1st half of Aug from 686 dollar earlier. According to monthly report released by SEA, Soyoil imports down 22.8% to 2.23 lt in Jun compared to 2.90 lt last year same month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.94% to settled at 38770 while prices down -2.45 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 754 and below same could see a test of 751 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 761, a move above could see prices testing 765.           

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 752-764.

* Ref.Soya dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking improving physical demand against lower stocks at the ports.

* Soyoil imports down 22.8% to 2.23 lt in Jun compared to 2.90 lt last year same month.

* Overall, imports are down 4.80% for the first eight months of OY 2018/19 (Nov-Jun) at 16.92 lt compared to last year same period.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 760 Rupees per 10 kgs.

               

CPO

CPO on MCX settled down -0.99% at 548.9 on profit booking after prices gained tracking increase in tariff values and improving demand. Refined palm oil shipments are rising as the import duty difference between refined and crude palm oil has fallen to 5% from 10% earlier. India imported 1.59 million tonnes of refined palm oil in first half of 2019, up 50% from a year ago, according to SEA. New Delhi's refined palm oil imports are likely to jump to a record 3 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year ending on Oct. 31, up 43% from a year ago. Indonesia's Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) urged the government to increase import tariffs on dairy products from the European Union in retaliation for the bloc's policies on palm oil. Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia to Europe are under threat after the EU decided that palm oil should be phased out from renewable transportation fuels due to its impact on deforestation. The European Commission is also proposing 8%-18% anti-subsidy duties on biodiesel imports from Indonesia. Malaysian Palm Oil Council CEO Kalyana Sundram has said that India may import 2.5 million tonne (MT) palm oil from Malaysia following its 5% preferential duty on the edible oil. In 2018, India had imported 2.18 MT from Malaysia. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.8% to settled at 3671 while prices down -5.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 545.8 and below same could see a test of 542.7 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 554, a move above could see prices testing 559.1.  

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 542.7-559.1.

* CPO dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking increase in tariff values and improving demand.

* Malaysia kept its export duty on crude palm oil for September unchanged at zero percent

* Indonesia's palm oil prices are expected to rise to $570 a tonne in January-June of next year.

* Crude palm oil prices in the spot market gained by 7.90 rupees and settled at 552.90 rupees.

               

Rmseed

Rmseed on NCDEX settled down -0.2% at 3961 on late profit booking after prices gained amid lower arrivals in physical market and fresh buying from crushing units to meet the demand. The recent reports of hailstorm and rains across producing regions of Rajasthan generated fears of adverse impact on standing crop. There is higher possibility for slight jump in carry forward inventory over previous year, therefore chances of sharp upside rallies seem quite low in near term. As per data released by MOPA, with the new season arrivals is just above 50 lt. In its 3rd adv estimates, mustard production revises higher to 87.82 lt from 83.97 lt in 2nd estimate. USDA maintain export forecast of rapemeal to 9 lt and output in 2019/20 at 77 lt (Vs 80 lt ) in its monthly report. As per SEA, rape meal exports also down 23% to 2.5 lt during the first quarter of 2019/20 compared to 3.2 lt last year. For June, rape meal exports are provisionally kept at 54,250 tonnes, down by more than 40% on year. India exported about 19519 tons of rapeseed meals during May 2019 against the 120630 tons of prior month. Mills across the country crushed 750,000 tn of mustard seeds in May, 16.7% lower from a year earlier, according to data compiled by the Mustard Oil Producers Association of India. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.17% to settled at 58050 while prices down -8 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3951 and below same could see a test of 3942 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3974, a move above could see prices testing 3988.               

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3942-3988.

* Rmseed settled down on late profit booking after prices gained amid lower arrivals in physical market

* As per data released by MOPA, with the new season arrivals is just above 50 lt.

* USDA maintain export forecast of rapemeal to 9 lt and output in 2019/20 at 77 lt (Vs 80 lt ) in its monthly report.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 4128 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up 2.05% at 7076 on short covering after prices dropped due to fall in export mainly poor demand from Iran. Fresh spell of rains in producing centres is likely to have positive impact on yield and output. The export demand to Iran, the largest buyers have come to a standstill since May with the expiry of the US sanctions waiver to India for six months. In Tamil Nadu, Turmeric growing regions lower rainfall reported, till now only 45-50% sowing completed. Turmeric sowing likely to continue till August but depend on water availability. Farmers were very worried for current situations, major dams were reported empty. Rainfall during 01-06-2019 to 31-07-2019, in Tamil Nadu region lower by 29%. Turmeric exports in June, down 16.22% y/y to 11,883 tn (Vs 14,183 tn), as per govt data. However, turmeric exports in first half of 2019, up by 5.1% to 66,300 tn compared to 63,000 tn. In 2018/19, output is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.14% to settled at 12130 while prices up 142 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6948 and below same could see a test of 6820 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7164, a move above could see prices testing 7252.        

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6820-7252.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped due to fall in export mainly poor demand from Iran.

* Fresh spell of rains in producing centres is likely to have positive impact on yield and output.

* In Tamil Nadu, Turmeric growing regions lower rainfall reported, till now only 45-50% sowing completed.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6826.2 Rupees gained 44.4 Rupees.

               

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down -0.68% at 16850 due to sufficient availability and prospects of good crop next season. Further, pressure seen because of high moisture content in the spice, due to rainfall in the key producing areas of Gujarat. Parched land of Gujarat got good rains recently and soil moisture along with higher prices will motivate farmers to grow jeera on higher area in the ensuing season. As per data arrivals of jeera in Gujarat is about 30,000 tn during 1-30 July compared to 7,500 tn last year same period. As per Commerce Ministry data, the Jeera exports down to 18,165 tn compared to 22,000 tn last year in June. Overall, the export of Jeera has dropped 6.4% in the first quarter of FY20 to 71,000 compared to 75,800 tn in the same period last fiscal. Cooler weather and rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan during Dec-Jan too were good for the crop. The recent weather disturbance in North-West India could support prices in case crop is damaged. Jeera exports are up 4.6% on year in February at 10,186 tn compared to 9,736 tn last year while for Apr-Feb period it is up 23.2% at 1.57 lt, compared to last year, according to DGCIS. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.92% to settled at 5949 while prices down -115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16772 and below same could see a test of 16693 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16987, a move above could see prices testing 17123.         

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 16695-17125.

* Jeera prices dropped due to sufficient availability and prospects of good crop next season.

* Further, pressure seen because of high moisture content in the spice, due to rainfall in the key producing areas of Gujarat.

* Parched land of Gujarat got good rains recently and soil moisture along with higher prices will motivate farmers to grow jeera on higher area

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -33.1 Rupees to end at 17355.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up 0.73% at 20780 due to reduces arrivals of the crop from Tamil Nadu region. As per reports, there is a reduction of 50,000 bales in the crop estimate for Tamil Nadu compared to the previous month’s estimate. Indian cotton production for the 2019-20 season is seen at 29 million 480 lb bales, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report down 1% from earlier estimates. The production decline is the result of reduced plantings in central Maharashtra, where farmers are shifting towards soybeans as well as in Karnataka, where farmers are switching to pulses and corn, the attache said. While overall plantings are expected to fall, they are happening at an accelerated rate this season in part because of the delayed monsoon, the report said. As of July 19, cotton planted area was 5% higher than the five-year average, with plantings especially accelerated in the states of Rajasthan and Odisha. At 29 million bales, the anticipated 2019-20 output is down only slightly from the 29.3 million bales forecasted earlier this year, but still about 9% larger than the 2018-19 crop. USDA increase production forecast for cotton in India by 1.75% this month to 29 million bales while the stocks jump by 17.8% to 8.93 m-bales. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.47% to settled at 6546 while prices up 150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20686.6 and below same could see a test of 20593.3 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 20846.6, a move above could see prices testing 20913.3.         

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20590-20910.

* Cotton prices gained amid deficient rain in main cotton growing districts of Gujarat capped downside momentum.

* According to IMD, monsoon rain this season is down by 30% to 70% in Suarashtra region which may severely affect cotton grown in the area.

* Area in Gujarat under cotton is higher by 64% as on 12-Jul-19 at 18.76 lakh ha compared to 11.44 lakh ha last year.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 110.00 rupees and settled at 20350.00 rupees. 

               

Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled down -0.25% at 4309 on profit booking after prices gained due to the estimation of lower output this year. Festive demand is still awaited. As per market sources some importers have struck deal of kabuli chana at $ 400 per MT basis CnF (Nhava Sheva port) from Black Sea region. The quantity in question is said to be 1000 MT.At Mumbai port Kabuli chana from other origin is quoted at $695-700 per MT. Chana output forecast revised slightly lower at 100.90 lakh tons in third advance estimates compared to 103.2 lakh tons in second advance estimates by the government. In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area. Currently, chana attracts 60% import duty since Mar 2018 which restricted imports. Chana, imports are down 85.1% to 1.43 lt in 2018/19 (Apr-Jan) compared to 9.58 lt last year, while exported are close to 2 lt of chana compared to 68,000 tonnes last year. According to the second advance estimate released by the government, chana production estimate for 2018-19 is 10.32 million MT which is 8.10percent lower than the 4th advance estimate of 11.23 million MT of 2017-18. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.68% to settled at 115270 while prices down -11 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4292 and below same could see a test of 4274 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4338, a move above could see prices testing 4366.       

Trading Ideas:

* Chana trading range for the day is 4274-4366.

* Chana dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to the estimation of lower output this year.

* Chickpeas export from Australia increased by 10 % to 27251 MT in June against May when it was registered at 24719MT.

* Even production is expected to increase by29.79 % to 3.66 lakh MT in 2019-20.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 12.45 Rupees to end at 4262.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

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