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Published on 26/04/2019 11:38:30 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Silver trading range for the day is 37060-37846 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

On MCX settled up 0.29% at 31911 as weak economic data rekindled global growth fears, while bullion’s recovery from four-month lows and an improved technical picture prompted some investors to cover their short positions. Data showed German business morale deteriorated in April as trade tensions hurt the industrial engine of Europe's largest economy. South Korean economy also unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, fuelling concerns that the global economy is still not out of the woods. Attesting the bearish momentum, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dipped 0.2 percent to 747.87 tonnes on Wednesday, its lowest since Oct. 19. Recent data out of the U.S. and China have been quite encouraging. Last week, China reported a better than expected 6.4% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019 and a sharp 8.7% jump in retail sales in March.

A Commerce Department report showed that new home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly jumped to their highest level in well over a year in the month of March. The report said new home sales surged up by 4.5% to an annual rate of 692,000 in March after soaring by 5.9% to a revised rate of 662,000 in February. Investors also eyed further trade negotiations between the United States and China. The two countries are slated to begin the next round of talks on trade on April 30, in an attempt to conclude a nearly year-long tariff spat. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.13% to settled at 13517 while prices up 93 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 31735 and below same could see a test of 31559 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 32056, a move above could see prices testing 32201.

Trading Ideas:

# Gold trading range for the day is 31559-32201.

# Gold gained as weak economic data rekindled global growth fears.

# Data showed German business morale deteriorated in April as trade tensions hurt the industrial engine of Europe's largest economy.

# South Korean economy also unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, fuelling concerns that the global economy is still not out of the woods.

 

Silver

prices recovered from lows with investors making cautious moves, weighing earnings reports and economic data from across the globe. German business morale deteriorated in April, bucking expectations for a small improvement, a business index by the Munich-based Ifo economic institute showed, as trade tensions weighed on the German economy, leaving domestic demand to support slowing growth. A wave of better-than-expected earnings results from U.S.-listed companies this week and strong U.S. housing data were cited as putting pressure on the precious metal. The US will send a high-level trade delegation to Beijing next week for talks that will begin on April 30, the US Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. Following those talks, the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington for further discussions that will begin on May 8.

A Commerce Department report showed that new home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly jumped to their highest level in well over a year in the month of March. The report said new home sales surged up by 4.5% to an annual rate of 692,000 in March after soaring by 5.9% to a revised rate of 662,000 in February. With the unexpected spike, new home sales reached their highest annual rate since hitting 712,000 in November of 2017. Markets are now awaiting U.S. GDP data for the fourth quarter, due on Friday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.29% to settled at 13461 while prices down -25 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 37258 and below same could see a test of 37060 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37651, a move above could see prices testing 37846.

Trading Ideas:

# Silver trading range for the day is 37060-37846.

# Silver prices recovered from lows with investors making cautious moves, weighing earnings reports and economic data from across the globe.

# German business morale deteriorated in April, bucking expectations for a small improvement, as trade tensions weighed on the German economy.

# The US will send a high-level trade delegation to Beijing next week for talks that will begin on April 30. -

 

Crudeoil

On MCX settled up 0.17% at 4637 supported by tightening sanctions against Iran announced this week but upside seen limited by a surge in U.S. supply and concerns of an economic slowdown. On the supply side, U.S. crude oil production has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018 to a record of 12.2 million bpd currently, making the United States the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. In part because of soaring domestic production, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week hit an October 2017 high of 460.63 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. attempts to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero come against the backdrop of a global market that is sufficiently well supplied to avoid price disruptions, senior U.S. officials said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would compensate for the shortfall in the oil market. Crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA is also soaring in the United States, reaching a record 12.2 million bpd this year. The United States re-imposed sanctions against Iran's oil exports last November, but initially allowed the eight biggest buyers of Iranian oil limited imports for another half-year. Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih told that China has "not yet" asked for more crude oil after the U.S. decided to end sanction waivers on Iranian oil imports. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.15% to settled at 18892 while prices up 8 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4613 and below same could see a test of 4588 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4666, a move above could see prices testing 4694.

Trading Ideas:

# Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4588-4694.

# Crude oil gains supported by tightening sanctions against Iran announced this week but upside seen limited by a surge in U.S. supply and concerns of an economic slowdown.

# U.S. attempts to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero come against the backdrop of a global market that is sufficiently well supplied to avoid price disruptions

# Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih told that China has "not yet" asked for more crude oil after the U.S. decided to end sanction waivers on Iranian oil imports.

 

Naturalgas

On MCX settled up 2.03% at 180.7 following the release of a storage report that was mostly in line with expectations, but warmer-than-normal weather, low heating demand and near-record production kept a lid on prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended April 19. That was mostly in line with 91-bcf build analysts estimated in a Reuters poll and compared with a decline of 20 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average injection of 47 bcf for the period. The increase last week boosted stockpiles to 1.339 trillion cubic feet (tcf). That would be about 4 percent above the same week a year ago and about 22 percent below the five-year average. The amount of gas in storage has remained below the five-year average since September 2017.

That took the contract deep into technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) of just 15.36, the lowest since February 2017, before prices recovered on Monday. Futures with an RSI below 30 are considered oversold. Meanwhile, output in the Lower 48 fell to 88.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from 89.6 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, but was near the all-time daily high of 90.2 bcfd posted on March 29. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 61.3% to settled at 5768 while prices up 3.6 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 177.2 and below same could see a test of 173.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 182.6, a move above could see prices testing 184.4.

 

Trading Ideas:

# Naturalgas trading range for the day is 173.6-184.4.

# Natural gas rose following the release of a storage report that was mostly in line with expectations.

# But warmer-than-normal weather, low heating demand and near-record production kept a lid on prices.

# The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended April 19.

 

Copper

On MCX settled down -1.46% at 444.4 on profit booking after prices seen supported as investors hoped for a U.S.-China trade deal. China's central bank has no intent to tighten or relax monetary policy, a vice governor said, adding that its use of reverse repos or a medium-term lending facility (MLF) does not signal it has a loosening bias. Liu Guoqiang, a People's Bank of China vice-governor, made the above comments at a briefing in Beijing. China's prudent monetary policy is appropriate overall, and is neither tight nor loose, Sun Guofeng, another PBOC official, said at the same briefing. The world's top copper miner Codelco has added its first hybrid dumptruck to its fleet at its El Teniente mine, the company said, in a global mining industry that is increasingly seeking to reduce its emissions and environmental footprint. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for trade talks beginning on April 30, the White House said in a statement. The value of India's copper products exports declined 70 percent in the year ended in March 2019 primarily due to the shutdown of Vedanta Ltd's copper smelter, an industry association said.

Exports of copper and copper products, including cathodes, were $1.07 billion in the period from April 2018 to March 2019, down from $3.48 billion in the 2017/18 fiscal year, according to data from the India's Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), which is supported by the country's trade ministry. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.3% to settled at 9176, now Copper is getting support at 442.1 and below same could see a test of 439.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 449, a move above could see prices testing 453.4.

Trading Ideas:

# Copper trading range for the day is 439.6-453.4.

# Copper prices dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as investors hoped for a U.S.-China trade deal.

# China's central bank has no intent to tighten or relax monetary policy, a vice governor said.

# U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for trade talks beginning on April 30

 

Zinc

On MCX settled up 1.14% at 226.45 as China central bank injected funds into the market via targeted loans, improving market sentiment. Transactions of spot zinc remained slow in Shanghai due to poorer demand from traders as deliveries for long-term contracts concluded. However, trades improved in Guangdong as downstream consumers stockpiled ahead of the Labour Day holiday. Global mine supply of zinc is expected to rise 6.4 percent this year to 13.87 million tonnes, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). But higher mine production has been slow to feed through to the refined market, with the ILZSG showing a 384,000 tonne deficit in 2018 and another shortfall in January.

Handan in China's top steelmaking province of Hebei extended its orange alert for air pollution till CST 24:00 on Tuesday April 30, according to the local environmental bureau on Wednesday April 24. The level II warning was originally scheduled to end on Thursday April 25. Recent upbeat economic data from the US also supported the greenback. The Ifo Institute said on Wednesday that its business climate index for Germany came in at 99.2 in April, weaker than last month's upwardly revised 99.7 and missed the consensus estimates of 99.9. The US will send a high-level trade delegation to Beijing next week for talks that will begin on April 30, the US Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.2% to settled at 4784 while prices up 2.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 224.5 and below same could see a test of 222.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 227.8, a move above could see prices testing 229.

 

Trading Ideas:

# Zinc trading range for the day is 222.4-229.

# Zinc prices gained as China central bank injected funds into the market via targeted loans, improving market sentiment.

# Handan in China's top steelmaking province of Hebei extended its orange alert for air pollution till Tuesday April 30

# Global mine supply of zinc is expected to rise 6.4 percent this year to 13.87 million tonnes, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

 

Nickel

on MCX settled down -0.52% at 862.6 as prices remained under pressure with new data showing a global nickel deficit had narrowed at the end of February. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 2,000 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 3,700 tonnes in January, and was much smaller than a 7,200-tonne deficit in the same month last year, the International Nickel Study Group said. Sentiment was also weighed down by worries that China will ease up on stimulative policies after some signs of stabilisation in its economy. Indonesia's state-controlled miner PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its first-quarter nickel ore output at 2.2 million tonnes was up versus 2.11 million tonnes in the first quarter last year. U.S. home sales fell more than expected in March as rising demand stoked by declining mortgage rates and slowing house price inflation continued to be frustrated by a lack of properties, especially in the market's lower-priced segment.

The US will send a high-level trade delegation to Beijing next week for talks that will begin on April 30, the US Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. Following those talks, the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington for further discussions that will begin on May 8. Markets are now awaiting U.S. GDP data for the fourth quarter, due on Friday. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.31% to settled at 9263 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 860.1 and below same could see a test of 857.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 866.3, a move above could see prices testing 869.9.

Trading Ideas:

# Nickel trading range for the day is 857.5-869.9.

# Nickel prices remained under pressure with new data showing a global nickel deficit had narrowed at the end of February.

# The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 2,000 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 3,700 tonnes in January.

# Sentiment was also weighed down by worries that China will ease up on stimulative policies after some signs of stabilisation in its economy.

 

Aluminium

on MCX settled up 0.07% at 151.2 on expectations of higher consumption and lower stocks. Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.414 million tonnes in March from a revised 4.916 million tonnes in February, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell by 5,125 tonnes to 1.03 million tonnes, the lowest since October. Global aluminium production flat lined in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). A couple of long-running outages together with curtailments in Europe caused production outside China to dip 1.4 percent to 6.37 million tonnes in the first three months of 2019. Chinese production, a complex moving picture of price-induced curtailments, pollution controls and capacity swaps, edged 1.6 percent higher to 8.93 million tonnes.

The net result was that global production rose by a marginal 0.3 percent year-on-year as China remained the world's dominant player with a 57 percent share of world production. China's aluminium production landscape remains a confused kaleidoscope of curtailments, ramp-ups and new-for-old capacity. The IAI's estimates of national production continue to run higher than the official numbers to the tune of 355,000 tonnes in the first quarter, although both data sets point to the same historically low growth rate. New capacity is being strictly controlled, which doesn't prevent a producer such as Hongqiao being able to replace "illegal" closed capacity with new, officially sanctioned smelters. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.33% to settled at 992 while prices up 0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 150.8 and below same could see a test of 150.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 151.7, a move above could see prices testing 152.1.

Trading Ideas:

# Aluminium trading range for the day is 150.3-152.1.

# Aluminium prices rallied on expectations of higher consumption and lower stocks.

# Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.414 million tonnes in March from a revised 4.916 million tonnes in February.

# Global aluminium production flat lined in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).

 

Mentha oil

On MCX settled down by -0.25% at 1380.2 on production is expected to increase by 30-40 percent during the year 2019-20. Spot markets are witnessed slow demand amid low arrivals in major physical centres in Uttar Pradesh. Prices also seen pressure earlier amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Monsoon rains in India are expected to be below normal this year, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency said, dampening prospects of higher farm and economic growth in the $2.6 trillion economy. “The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. The model projections call for 80 percent chance of El Nino during March-May, dropping to 60 percent for June to August,” Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, told reporters. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn in 2019 from 33,000-35,000 tn last year.

This year, sowing of the crop started towards the end of last month, a couple of weeks later than usual due to extended cold weather in all major growing regions. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1603.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.60/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.25% to settled at 406 while prices down -3.5 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1371.6 and below same could see a test of 1363 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1389.4, a move above could see prices testing 1398.6.

Trading Ideas:

# Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1363-1398.6. # Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1603.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.60/-.

# Mentha oil dropped on production is expected to increase by 30-40 percent during the year 2019-20.

# Spot markets are witnessed slow demand amid low arrivals in major physical centres in Uttar Pradesh.

# Prices also seen pressure earlier amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.

 

Soyabean

Settled flat on higher domestic output and weak demand from millers due to forecast of near normal monsoon forecast by IMD. Soybean arrivals for the Oct-Mar period are pegged at 77 lt, up by 23.2% on year by SOPA. It expects availability of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports of about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year. SEA forecast soybean output at 102.43 lt in 2018/19, up more than 23% y/y. In the US, soybean inventories have swelled as the U.S.-China trade has hurt shipments of American soy to Chinese buyers. China instead made purchases from Brazil. Moreover, the trade war between the US and China also disrupted US soybean to China. Brazilian consultancy Celeres expect the country’s 2018/19 soybean crop to total 115.8 mt, up 2 mt from their prior projection. SOPA expects availably of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year. USDA raised its estimate of Brazil's 2018/19 soybean harvest to 117 million tonnes, up from 116.5 million in March and at the top end of a range of analyst expectations as per the Second Advance Estimates for 2018-19 crops released by Ministry of Agriculture, Soybean production is estimated higher by 20 per cent at 136.89 lakh tonnes as compared to 113.90 lakh tonnes produced during 2017-18.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 Rupees to 3855 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.79% to settled at 107270, now Soyabean is getting support at 3710 and below same could see a test of 3694 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3743, a move above could see prices testing 3760.

Trading Ideas:

# Soyabean trading range for the day is 3694-3760.

# Soyabean settled flat on higher domestic output and weak demand from millers due to forecast of near normal monsoon forecast by IMD.

# Soybean arrivals for the Oct-Mar period are pegged at 77 lt, up by 23.2% on year by SOPA.

# In the US, soybean inventories have swelled as the U.S.-China trade has hurt shipments of American soy to Chinese buyers.

# At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 Rupees to 3855 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

On NCDEX settled up by 0.23% at 745.1 due to lower level buying by stockists after prices dropped due to higher stocks at port and expectation of higher imports. In a fortnightly notification, Government cut tariff value of crude soy oil by 18 dollar to $693 per tn for the 2nd half of April. According to monthly report released by SEA, Soyoil import jumped by 154.5% to 2.92 lt in March compared to 1.15 lt last year same month. Overall, imports are higher by 19.5 for the period of Nov-Mar at 9.88 lt. According to monthly report released by SEA, soy oil import jumped by 64.7% to 2.20 lt in February compared to 1.34 lt last year same month.

Overall, imports are lower by 2.31% for the period of Nov-Feb at 6.95 lt. USDA FAS in its latest GAIN report forecast India soyoil production at 17.22 lakh tonnes in 2018/19, up by 14.2% forecast by official USDA while Soyoil imports are pegged at 36 lt Vs 34 lt by USDA. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), members are expected to crush 3.3 % higher Soybean to 158.73 million bushel in February 2019 compared to last year record in the same month on account of profitable U.S. soy crush margins and ample supplies of beans.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 754.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.69% to settled at 24460 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 740 and below same could see a test of 735 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 749, a move above could see prices testing 753.

Trading Ideas:

# Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 735-753. # Refsoyoil gained due to lower level buying by stockists after prices dropped due to higher stocks at port and expectation of higher imports.

# In a fortnightly notification, Government cut tariff value of crude soy oil by 18 dollar to $693 per tn for the 2nd half of April.

# SEA forecast soybean output at 102.43 lt in 2018/19, up more than 23% y/y.

# At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 754.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

On MCX settled up by 0.07% at 538.6 on short covering after prices dropped as concerns of high inventory levels in the world's second largest producer persist. Palm oil production throughout Malaysia so far this month is showing monthly gains of 2-5 percent. Higher output levels would contribute towards a rise in stockpiles, which last year hit its highest levels in at least 18 years. Inventories had last declined 4.6 percent to 2.92 million tonnes at end-March, while production rose to 1.67 million tonnes, up 8.3 percent from February. Data from cargo surveyors Societe Generale de Surveillance and Intertek Testing Services showed export gains of 1.5-2.2 percent for the April 1-20 period.

Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia, however, reported a 1.8 percent drop for the same duration. Malaysia kept its export duty on crude palm oil for May at zero percent, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's website that cited the national customs department. The duty has been at zero percent since September. Malaysia kept its export duty on crude palm oil for May at zero percent, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's website that cited the national customs department. The duty has been at zero percent since September. Official data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed March end-stocks and production at higher levels than expected. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.33% to settled at 964 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 537.6 and below same could see a test of 536.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 539.8, a move above could see prices testing 541.

Trading Ideas:

# CPO trading range for the day is 536.6-541.

# Crude palm oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as concerns of high inventory levels in the world's second largest producer persist.

# Palm oil production throughout Malaysia so far this month is showing monthly gains of 2-5 percent.

# Malaysia kept its export duty on crude palm oil for May at zero percent. Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 0.50 rupees and settled at 537.00 rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

On NCDEX settled down by -0.34% at 3788 on profit booking after prices gained on expectation of improving demand for crushing while pickup in procurement by NAFED at MSP. Nafed is expected to procure about 20 lakh tonnes of mustard at MSP from various states. All India mustard crop arrivals in the second week of April is reported at 2.07 Lakh MT which is 40.81 percent higher than the last year arrivals of 1.47 Lakh MT in the same time periods. Higher arrivals are due to higher production estimate this year. According to the latest report of SEA, all India mustard production for 2018-19 is estimated at 8.5 million MT which is around 18.88 per cent higher than last year production estimate of 7.15 million MT. Higher production estimate is due t0 higher sowing acreage and favourable weather condition in major producing states.

USDA revised its production forecast by 21% to 80 lt in April monthly report from 66 lt last month. Moreover, rape meal exports in March provisionally reported down by 59.2% at 50,964 tonnes (Vs 125,000 t) on year as per SEA press release. However, February meal exports figures revised higher to 79,463 tonnes from 41,728 tonnes. Meal exports crossed 10 lt in FY 2018/19 first time in last 3 years. As per SEA, the mustard seed production will be higher by about 19% this season to over 81 lt due to better climate and higher area. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 3870.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Rmseed is getting support at 3778 and below same could see a test of 3768 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3801, a move above could see prices testing 3814.

Trading Ideas:

# Rmseed trading range for the day is 3768-3814.

# Rmseed dropped on profit booking after prices gained on expectation of improving demand for crushing while pickup in procurement by NAFED at MSP.

# Nafed is expected to procure about 20 lakh tonnes of mustard at MSP from various states.

# All India mustard crop arrivals in the second week of April is reported at 2.07 Lakh MT which is 40.81 percent higher than the last year arrivals of 1.47 Lakh MT.

# In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 3870.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

on NCDEX settled up by 2.32% at 6534 as support seen on government procurement in some states coupled with good exports. However, upside seen limited due to near normal monsoon forecast and higher carryover stocks. There has been an increase in turmeric arrivals in all the markets of Erode. If traders get more orders, they can buy turmeric at higher prices. By the end of April, new turmeric will start coming in the areas of Erode. New turmeric is coming in for sale from Mysore and Dhrampuri for the last three. Worries over El Nino conditions have eased and there are indications of another year of robust monsoon rain, according to the latest assessment by the country’s weather office. There were also concerns that drought conditions and cold weather will affect the crop production. Farmers have demanded the Tamil Nadu Government procure turmeric from farmers at Rs. 12,000 a quintal immediately.

Swathantira Raju, President, of a small and marginal farmer’s association, in a statement demanded the State government procure all the turmeric with the farmers at Rs. 12,000 a quintal. As per Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of January, down 11.4% y/y to 7,774 tonnes (Vs 8,773 t). However, for Apr-Jan period exports up 18% at 1.10 lakh tonnes compared to 93,350 tonnes last year for the same period. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6396.75 Rupees gained 16.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.96% to settled at 14385 while prices up 148 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6430 and below same could see a test of 6326 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6618, a move above could see prices testing 6702.

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 6326-6702.

# Turmeric gained as support seen on government procurement in some states coupled with good exports.

# However, upside seen limited due to near normal monsoon forecast and higher carryover stocks.

# Worries over El Nino conditions have eased and there are indications of another year of robust monsoon rain.

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6396.75 Rupees gained 16.4 Rupees.

 

Jeera

On NCDEX settled down by -0.73% at 17100 on higher domestic output and weak demand from millers due to forecast of near normal monsoon forecast by IMD. Soybean arrivals for the Oct-Mar period are pegged at 77 lt, up by 23.2% on year by SOPA. It expects availability of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports of about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year. SEA forecast soybean output at 102.43 lt in 2018/19, up more than 23% y/y. In the US, soybean inventories have swelled as the U.S.-China trade has hurt shipments of American soy to Chinese buyers. China instead made purchases from Brazil.

Moreover, the trade war between the US and China also disrupted US soybean to China. Brazilian consultancy Celeres expect the country’s 2018/19 soybean crop to total 115.8 mt, up 2 mt from their prior projection. SOPA expects availably of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year. USDA raised its estimate of Brazil's 2018/19 soybean harvest to 117 million tonnes, up from 116.5 million in March and at the top end of a range of analyst expectations as per the Second Advance Estimates for 2018-19 crops released by Ministry of Agriculture, Soybean production is estimated higher by 20 per cent at 136.89 lakh tonnes as compared to 113.90 lakh tonnes produced during 2017-18. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 50.6 Rupees to end at 17133.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.27% to settled at 6057, now Jeera is getting support at 16980 and below same could see a test of 16855 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17290, a move above could see prices testing 17475. Trading Ideas:

# Jeera trading range for the day is 16855-17475.

# Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to the increase in the export demand, with the possibility of lower production

# Cumin seed production in Syria and Turkey is estimated to decline, Syria production is estimated around 25,000 tonnes this year # Production of Jeera in Gujarat in 2018-19 is expected to be lower by about 25 percent to 2.23 lakh MT compared to last year’s.

# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 50.6 Rupees to end at 17133.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

on MCX settled up by 0.36% at 22400 on reports of lower production and improving demand. Cotton supply is dwindling quickly as 2018-19 crop is likely to be much lower than the initial projection of around 350 lakh bales. In 2018/19, cotton output is estimated at 300.9 l-bales (of 170 kg each), down about 7.4% compared to previous estimate of 324 l-bales as per latest govt Adv Est. CAI cuts 2018-19 production estimate further by 2 l-bales to 328 l-bales for the year 2018-19. however, higher imports of 27 l-bales (Vs 15) and lower exports of 50 lakh bales (Vs 69) for 2018/19 season is bearish. According to data compiled by DGCIS, country exported 95,712 tonnes (t) of cotton raw including wastes in Feb, down 20.8% compared to 148,948 t last year. Moreover, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has commenced sale of the commodity procured so far in the current marketing season. Moreover, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has commenced sale of the commodity procured so far in the current marketing season. The agency has procured around 1.1 million bales of cotton in the ongoing marketing season that started on October 1.

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has cut the crop output estimate again by 200,000 bales of 170 kg each to a 10-year low of 32.8 million bales this season. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.78% to settled at 16138 while prices up 80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22310 and below same could see a test of 22220 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22470, a move above could see prices testing 22540.

 

Trading Ideas:

# Cotton trading range for the day is 22220-22540. # Cotton settled flat on reports of lower production and improving demand.

# Cotton supply is dwindling quickly as 2018-19 crop is likely to be much lower than the initial projection of around 350 lakh bales. # According to data compiled by DGCIS, country exported 95,712 tonnes (t) of cotton raw including wastes in Feb, down 20.8%.

# Cotton prices in spot market gained by 30.00 rupees and settled at 22330.00 rupees.

 

Chana

on NCDEX settled down by -0.99% at 4379 on profit booking after prices gained as stocks with physical traders diminishing amid lower imports and high consumption. NAFED still has more than 16 lt of chana procured last year. In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area. Currently, chana attract 60% import duty since Mar 2018 which restricted imports. Chana, imports are down 85.1% to 1.43 lt in 2018/19 (Apr-Jan) compared to 9.58 lt last year, while exported are close to 2 lt of chana compared to 68,000 tonnes last year.

NAFED procured total 39,787.55 tons of gram in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh under Price Support Scheme (PSS), the report showed. India has issued a combined 6,50,000 tonne import quota for pulses for the fiscal year to March 2020, a government order said, allowing overseas purchases of protein-rich pulse varieties that are a staple of Indian cuisine. Two straight years of drought pushed up pulse prices in 2015 and forced New Delhi to allow duty-free imports. According to the second advance estimates released by the government, chana production estimate for 2018-19 is 10.32 million MT which is 8.10 percent lower than the 4 th advance estimate of 11.23 million MT of 2017-18. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at 91020 while prices down -44 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4330 and below same could see a test of 4282 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4430, a move above could see prices testing 4482.

Trading Ideas:

# Chana trading range for the day is 4282-4482.

# Chana dropped on profit booking after prices gained as stocks with physical traders diminishing amid lower imports and high consumption.

# In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area.

# NAFED still has more than 16 lt of chana procured last year.

# In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 2.3 Rupees to end at 4315.65 Rupees per 100 kgs

 

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