Rates reduced for more categories of goods and services - Motilal Oswal

Another step to make GST more palatable

Rates reduced for more categories of goods and services

The GST Council – in its 25th meeting held on 18th January 2018 – decided to prune tax rates on 29 categories of goods and 53 categories of services. The Council also laid emphasis on easing compliance

21/01/2018 2:39:25 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Decoding an eventful year of new highs - Motilal Oswal

Decoding an eventful year of new highs

* CY17 was an eventful year, with several disruptive events causing significant volatility in the markets. However, bucking this volatile trend, mutual funds continued witnessing steady inflows in CY17, largely led by (i) increased investor participation via systematic investment plans (SIPs), (ii) positive impac

21/01/2018 1:57:36 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
FY2019 budget: Ability versus willingness to spend - Kotak Sec

FY2019 budget: Ability versus willingness to spend. We expect the government to show central fiscal deficit at 3.2% of GDP for FY2019, down from 3.4% for FY2018. It will likely project a strong pickup in indirect tax (GST) and divestment revenues to show higher infrastructure and rural spending. We do not expect any major changes to direct tax rates or capital g

18/01/2018 9:56:27 AM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
WPI inflation moderates, but CPI inflation trajectory remains policy key - Kotak Sec

WPI inflation moderates, but CPI inflation trajectory remains policy key.

Weakening food inflation dynamics contributed the most to moderating headline WPI inflation, largely mirroring the trends seen in CPI inflation. Even as WPI inflation has been trending higher since August 2018 largely due to fading base effect, it will remain soft to average ~3.

16/01/2018 3:55:43 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
A review of our contrarian investment strategies - Motilal Oswal

Contrarian Investing – Quarterly Update

A review of our contrarian investment strategies

Our thematic strategy note on Contrarian Investing, published in June 2017 gives a detailed account of the subject matter. In this note, we have reviewed the performance of our strategies. Also, since we use quarter

16/01/2018 3:50:10 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Capital First/IDFC Bank Merger -`Right fitting shoe`- Prabhudas Lilladher

In its quest for “retailising” the bank, IDFCBK & CAFL announced merger plans last week with swap ratio of 139 shares of IDFCBK to 10 shares held in Capital First giving slight premium and believe merger benefit to accrue in medium term. We are more positive on likely aggression which shall come for the bank with new management.

* Broad contours of merge

16/01/2018 3:40:36 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
IIP jumps to 25-month high at 8.4% in Nov; CPI inflation rises to 5.2% in Dec - Choice Broking

* Factory output recorded sharper than expected increaseto 8.4% in Nov

* Manufacturing output growth rose to 10.2% while the performance of mining and electricitysectors remained sluggish

* Capital goods sector expanded by 5.3% in Nov (6.6% in Oct), fourth consecutive positive growth. Activity ofconsumer non-durables sector rose by 23.1%.

* High frequencyindicators

16/01/2018 2:31:35 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Key events/data releases during the week - Kotak Sec

Key events/data releases during the week

* RBI balance sheet, reserve money and related updates (as of January 5, 2018) (Details in slides 4, 5, and 6)

• Notes issued: Rs16.8 tn (November 4, 2016: Rs17.7 tn)

• Currency in circulation: Rs17.0 tn (Rs17.9 tn)

* CPI inflation accelerated to 5.21% in December from 4.

16/01/2018 1:15:56 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Retail inflation at a 17-month high in December 2017 - Motilal Oswal

Retail inflation at a 17-month high in December 2017

November IIP surprises on the upside

* CPI inflation rose to a 17-month high of 5.2% in December 2017, higher than our/market expectation of 4.9%/5.1%.

* Vegetable inflation shot up to a four-year high of 29.1%, while core CPI rose to a 40-month

15/01/2018 4:44:21 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Branded apparels - Strong quarter on a low base -ICICI sec

Retail channel, which got impacted in Oct’17 due to shift in festive season to Q2FY18, gained momentum in Nov’17 owing to better wedding season (last year the same was impacted by demonetisation) and in Dec’17 due to end of season sale (EoSS) for a week. While wholesale channel is witnessing gradual recovery on QoQ basis after initial hiccups of GST implementation, optimum re-

15/01/2018 4:36:18 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Spike in IIP to smoothen out; CPI to remain above 5.0% in Q4FY18 - Emkay

IIP growth in Nov’17 shot up to 8.4% yoy against our expectation of 3.4% yoy, largely on account of sharp growth in Consumer Non-durables and in Infrastructure sectors. Consumer Durables might start witnessing a turnaround in growth based on: a) increase in government spending in rural areas b) pick-up in retail credit to 17.3% and c) lower base due to demonetization last year. Momentum i

13/01/2018 3:06:15 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Progression towards cyclical revival - Emkay

Progression towards cyclical revival

The combination of demand revival in rural sector, positive rub-off from lower GST rates, fiscal expansion (India Strategy: Supplementary grants fortifies reflationary theme), shift from unorganized to the organized space and recovery from the demonetization shock (around a year ago) are likely to have a favourable

9/01/2018 5:45:59 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
System liquidity to tighten marginally this week - Kotak Sec

* System liquidity to tighten marginally this week.

The liquidity conditions improved sharply last week, with the surplus rising to a three week high of Rs 1.05tn probably aided by month-end heavier than usual government spending, RBI taking delivery of its long forward position (~$2.3bn) and RBI mopping up big ticket flows in the spot market. The surp

8/01/2018 5:06:11 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
What does RBI`s consumer confidence survey suggest - Motilal Oswal

What does RBI’s consumer confidence survey suggest?

Adjustments to widening divergences key to future growth

* Inflationary expectations, as reflected by the households survey conducted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has always been an important variable taken into consideration during the monetary policy meetings. Ho

8/01/2018 4:51:57 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
The curious case of all Indian markets - Kotak Sec

The curious case of all Indian markets.

We struggle to understand the divergent reactions of India’s bond, currency and equity markets to the sharp deterioration in India’s macro-economic position over the past three months. The bond market seems to be rightly worried about the downturn in India’s macro-economic conditions but the cu

8/01/2018 4:08:04 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
End of a long drought - Motilal Oswal

End of a long drought

Earnings revival finally on the horizon

Earnings rebound led by global cyclicals; low base of demonetization a booster

The much-awaited 2HFY18 earnings season is here. It has been much-awaited owing to expectations of a good earnings rebound from a low base &nda

8/01/2018 2:29:33 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
December 2017 quarter earnings preview - Kotak Sec

December 2017 quarter earnings preview.

We expect 3QFY18 net income of KIE coverage universe to grow 12% yoy from a low base in 3QFY17 (affected by demonetization). We expect double-digit growth in the net income of automobiles (volume growth on a low base and margin improvement), cement, consumer products (low base, cost-saving initiatives, operating

6/01/2018 5:31:11 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Godrej Consumer Products FY17 Annual Report - Motilal Oswal

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS FY17 GCPL’s FY17 annual report analysis highlights subdued organic revenue growth of 4% to INR91b and PBT growth of 7% to INR16b. The muted performance can be primarily attributed to subsidiaries, which reported revenue growth (adjusted for acquisitions) of mere 3% and PBT decline of 11%. Subsidiaries in Indonesia, the UK and Africa (Darling) continued delivering

5/01/2018 4:00:14 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Strong all-round economic recovery in November 2017 - Motilal Oswal

Strong all-round economic recovery in November 2017

3QFY18 GDP growth projections face upside potential

* India’s monthly economic activity index (EAI) grew at a strong 10% YoY in November 2017, marking the highest growth in 17 months. Favorable base and very high growth in fiscal spending supported the acceleration i

4/01/2018 4:37:27 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Employment grew 2.03% in FY17 - Motilal Oswal

Employment grew 2.03% in FY17

Notwithstanding demonetization, employment gains quickened during 2HFY17

* As against a total addition of 231,000 jobs in three first three quarters of FY17, eight selected sectors that constitute ~81% of the total employment of units with 10 or more workers, added 185,000 jobs in 4QFY17. In to

4/01/2018 4:34:26 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
GST may disrupt several popular narratives - Kotak Sec

GST may disrupt several popular narratives. Sluggish GST revenues over the past few months may raise concerns about the government’s fiscal targets for FY2018-19 unless GST revenue trends were to reverse meaningfully. The government may want to bolster other revenue sources and prevent potential damage elsewhere (from higher crude oil prices for example).

4/01/2018 12:05:24 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
A stellar finish to the year; all eyes on earnings recovery in CY18 - Motilal Oswal

* Nifty ends CY17 at a high: The Nifty ended CY17 with stellar 29% returns, after gaining 3% in December 2017. Even as one gets excited about CY17 returns, we note that the three-year CAGR returns for the Nifty stand at 8.5%. In December, FIIs turned net sellers after two months (sold USD0.7b), while DII flows remained robust (USD1.3b). For CY17, MF flows stood

2/01/2018 4:31:07 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news
Monthly Strategy Update - Reliance Sec

Institutional Equity Research

A Healthy Ride

The year 2017 proved to be promising and ended with a bang for Indian equities, as the benchmark NIFTY recorded a healthy ~29% YoY gain surpassing the psychological 10,000 milestone. Further demonetisation drive in Nov’16 led Indian equities to witness a massi

2/01/2018 4:07:36 PM | Posted in Special Event Reports read full news