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Published on 18-04-2024 07:34 pm

USD ZONE

Existing Home Sales
Actual: 4.19M
Forecast: 4.20M
Previous: 4.38M

CB Leading Index m/m
Actual: -0.3%
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: 0.2%

DATA IS FLAT FOR DOLLAR1Advisorybot07:35 PM

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Published on 18-04-2024 10:22 am

Market Roundup

The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher following unwinding in the greenback against major currencies.

The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer.

The forward market indicates the spot USDINR opening around 83.45 from Tuesday’s close of 83.54. On Wednesday, the forex market remained closed on account of Ram Navami.

On Tuesday, spot USDINR gained 9 paise to 83.54, closing at a record high level. Technical set-up remains bullish for the USDINR but unwinding in the greenback against major currencies and lower crude oil prices could be headwinds in the near term. The pair has support at 83.20 and resistance at 83.70.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was last at 105.92, inching away from the five-and-a-half-month high of 106.51 on Tuesday, and is up 4.5% this year. The pound held gains after comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and data showing UK inflation slowed less than expected. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she sees signs of recovery and carefully looks at the exchange rate and the inflation impact.

The US stock market saw its longest losing streak since January as a handful of big tech companies sold off.

Equities fell for a fourth straight day, with the S&P 500 extending a drop from its all-time high to more than 4%. Elsewhere, Crude oil prices fell as doubts over an escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel emerged.

The lack of an immediate response by Israel to Iran’s weekend attack has seen the market reduce its geopolitical risk premium. Markets are pricing in 44 basis points of cuts from the Fed this year, drastically lower than the 160 bps expected at the start of the year, with September becoming the latest starting point of the easing cycle, showed the CME FedWatch Tool.

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Published on 18-04-2024 10:21 am

Spot GBP/INR

• The pound’s price action in the last three days suggests a heightened chance of at least a short-term swing low being in place

• If the pair manages a close above 104.26 in the upcoming trading session, it will add more credibility to the recent low of 103.60

• Momentum remains bearish but is now in an oversold state, pending a bullish cross.

• The moving average spread (8, 21) oscillator is negative, but remains neutral

• Notable strike due to expire on April 18 for GBP/USD lies at 1.2390

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Published on 18-04-2024 10:20 am

Spot JPY/INR

• The JPY continued to drop to multidecade lows against the greenback, and that has kept the pressure on the INR cross

• The stochastics oscillator plotted on the daily shows that the pair is placed in extremely oversold territory, but is yet to trigger a bullish crossover

• Fibonacci-based supports lie at 0.5360 and 0.5222 while upside hurdles lie at 0.5443 and 0.5490.

• The histogram tracking deviations of the moving average (8,21) is in neutral mode below 0.

• Notable strikes due to expire on April 18 for USD/JPY lie at 152 and 153

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Published on 18-04-2024 10:20 am

Spot EUR/INR

• The EURINR experienced an initial dip on Tuesday, but recovered from ~88.50 handle to finish higher

• The daily oscillator is in a bearish regime and is not oversold, but the last two candles are showing presence of demand at lower levels

• Resistances lie at 89.00 followed by 89.35, while supports may be seen at 88.52 and 88.13

• The moving-average (8,21) spread oscillator remains neutral but is close to probing the outlier mark(-2)

• Notable strikes set to expire on April 18 for the EUR/USD lie at 1.0800 and 1.0860

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