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Published on 19-04-2024 10:57 am

Market Roundup

* The Indian rupee is expected to open with a cut amid geopolitical worries. The usual suspects of a risk aversion wave are in play on Friday as equity indexes are lower, the haven dollar is catching a bid, as are bond futures, with oil contracts modestly higher. Elsewhere, gold advanced amid growing political risks and demand from central banks and Chinese consumers. The catalyst appears to be unconfirmed reports of explosionsin Iran.

* On Thursday, spot USDINR ended almost unchanged at 83.54 but closed at a record high level amid foreign fund outflows and risk-averse sentiments. Technical setup remains bullish for the pair and immediate resistance is placed at 83.70 while 83.20 becomesthe support.

* A gauge of the dollar’s strength climbed toward its highest since November. The move came amid unverified media reports of explosions in Iran, Syria and Iraq. Traders have been awaiting an Israeli response to Iran’s attack last weekend, with the rhetoric between the two escalating.

* US equity futures fell in early Asian trading as risk sentiment turned, weighing on the region’s equities

* European Central Bank Governing Council members Olli Rehn and Fabio Panetta pointed to June as potentially the right moment to cut rates while fellow policymaker Robert Holzmann said policy may be impacted by the timing of Fed easing.

* In economic data, US jobless claims remained subdued, consistent with a healthy job market. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed factory index topped estimates. While existing home sales fell, the pace was roughly in line with the median forecast of economists.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:53 am

JPYINR

Observations

JPYINR trading range for the day is 54.02-54.3.

JPY steadied as the divergence in monetary policy between Fed and the BOJ became more pronounced.

Japan's trade balance shifted to a surplus of JPY 366,467 billion in March 2024

The pace of adjustments in policy interest rates in Japan would be incomparably slower than recent examples of other major central banks

BUY JPYINR APR @ 54 SL 53.8 TGT 54.2-54.4.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:53 am

GBPINR

Observation

GBPINR trading range for the day is 104.1-104.36.

GBP recovers propelled by stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK

Factory gate prices of goods produced by UK manufacturers rose 0.6% year-on-year in March 2024

The latest CPI report revealed that the UK's inflation rate fell to 3.2% in March, the lowest since September 2021

SELL GBPINR APR @ 104.25 SL 104.55 TGT 103.95-103.75.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:52 am

EURINR

Observations

EURINR trading range for the day is 88.82-89.48.

Euro gains bolstered by renewed selling pressure in the US Dollar and a risk-friendly environment.

ECB President Lagarde confirmed that the ECB will cut rates soon

The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 2.4% year-on-year in March 2024

SELL EURINR APR @ 89.3 SL 89.5 TGT 89.1-88.9.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:51 am

USDINR

Observations

USDINR trading range for the day is 83.45-83.63.

Rupee remained in range due to the potential intervention from RBI.

However, the growing expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts provided some support to dollar

Indian economy's growth momentum is expected to decelerate in 2024 to 6.5% against the 6.7% in previous year – UNCTAD

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