CAI Raises 2025-26 Cotton Pressing Estimate to 339 Lakh Bales by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has raised its 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate by 2 lakh bales to 339 lakh bales, reflecting higher estimates from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Despite increased pressing, cotton availability remains comfortable as imports are also projected at 62 lakh bales, up 2 lakh bales from the earlier estimate. Total cotton supply is estimated at 456.59 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is maintained at 348 lakh bales. Closing stocks are projected at 93.59 lakh bales, 38 lakh bales above last season. Higher supply and inventories could keep cotton prices under pressure.
Key Highlights
* CAI raised 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate by 2 lakh bales to 339 lakh bales.
* Cotton imports estimate increased by 2 lakh bales to 62 lakh bales for 2025-26.
* Total cotton supply is projected at 456.59 lakh bales, sharply above last season.
* September 2026 closing stocks are estimated at 93.59 lakh bales, up 38 lakh bales YoY.
* Domestic cotton consumption is maintained at 348 lakh bales, up 29 lakh bales YoY.
Cotton prices are likely to remain under pressure as the Cotton Association of India (CAI) raised its 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate by 2 lakh bales to 339 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The increase reflects higher pressing estimates for Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, partly offset by a reduction in Upper Rajasthan. The revised estimate is equivalent to 355.74 lakh running bales of 162 kg each.
The higher pressing estimate adds to already comfortable domestic availability. CAI has also increased its cotton import estimate by 2 lakh bales to 62 lakh bales for the ongoing season, compared with 41 lakh bales last year. Around 54 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports by July 31, indicating strong import availability. Meanwhile, cotton exports are projected at 15 lakh bales, down from 18 lakh bales last season, with 12.25 lakh bales shipped through July.
On the demand side, CAI maintained its 2025-26 domestic cotton consumption estimate at 348 lakh bales, up substantially from 319 lakh bales last year. Consumption through July 31 was estimated at 290 lakh bales. Despite stronger consumption, supply growth remains significantly higher.
Total cotton supply for 2025-26 is estimated at 456.59 lakh bales, comprising opening stocks of 55.59 lakh bales, pressing of 339 lakh bales and imports of 62 lakh bales. Available surplus is estimated at 108.59 lakh bales, compared with 73.59 lakh bales last year. Closing stocks are projected at 93.59 lakh bales, up 38 lakh bales year-on-year. The elevated inventory outlook is likely to weigh on cotton prices unless demand improves significantly.
Higher pressing and imports, combined with rising closing stocks, point to comfortable cotton availability and a bearish near-term price outlook.
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