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China's oilseed market is expected to remain a key driver for global vegetable oil prices as strong crushing demand and import requirements support consumption. FAS China forecasts 2026/27 soybean imports at 108 MMT, while soybean crush is projected at 105 MMT. Rapeseed imports for 2025/26 were raised 6% to 3.4 MMT, reflecting recovering demand and expanding crushing capacity. China’s soybean oil exports are projected to reach a record 1 MMT in 2025/26, driven by strong crush rates and limited domestic demand growth. Meanwhile, palm oil imports reached 3.1 MMT in the first ten months, up 18% year-on-year.

Key Highlights

• China’s 2026/27 soybean imports are forecast at 108 MMT, down from 112.6 MMT in 2025/26.

• Soybean crush is projected at 105 MMT in 2026/27, reflecting sustained demand for soybean meal.

• China’s rapeseed imports were raised 6% to 3.4 MMT for 2025/26 amid recovering demand.

• Soybean oil exports may reach a record 1 MMT, supported by strong crushing and limited domestic demand.

• Palm oil imports rose 18% to 3.1 MMT in the first ten months of 2025/26.

Vegetable oil prices are likely to remain supported as China's strong oilseed demand and expanding crushing activity continue to underpin the market. Rapeseed oil is forecast in a 9,000–11,000 yuan/MT range for MY 2026/27, while soybean oil is estimated at 8,000–10,000 yuan/MT. Palm oil prices are also expected to remain elevated as supply from major exporters faces weather and biofuel-related constraints.

China's soybean market remains the largest demand driver. FAS China forecasts 2026/27 soybean imports at 108 MMT, while soybean crush is projected at 105 MMT. Imports are expected to remain substantial despite slower growth in soybean meal demand. Chinese purchases from Brazil reached record levels, with 12.1 MMT of the country's record 13.5 MMT June soybean imports sourced from Brazil.

Rapeseed demand is also recovering. China’s 2025/26 rapeseed import forecast was increased 6% to 3.4 MMT, supported by stronger demand from the aquaculture sector and expanded domestic crushing capacity. However, first-ten-month imports were down 41.5% year-on-year due to the temporary absence of Canadian shipments.

Meanwhile, China's soybean oil exports are projected to reach a record 1 MMT in MY 2025/26, compared with 233,900 tonnes during the same period previously. India accounted for 48.3% of soybean oil exports, highlighting strong regional demand. Palm oil imports also reached 3.1 MMT, up 18%, although elevated prices and biofuel demand may constrain future availability.

Strong Chinese crushing and import demand should keep vegetable oils supported, although rising soybean oil exports and slowing import growth could limit the upside.

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