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Below the Comment on WPI July 2026  by Shashwat Singh, Fundamental Analyst, Bajaj Broking 

India Wholesale Inflation Moderates to 9.78% in July 2026 Amid Divergent Sectoral Trajectories

All India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation has accelerated sharply in FY 2026-27, registering a cumulative Apr–Jul YoY rate of 9.47% against −0.20% in FY 2025-26. In July 2026, headline YoY WPI inflation eased slightly to 9.78% from 9.87% in June and a revised 9.88% in May, with the All Commodities index easing to 110.0 from 110.2. Group trends reflect shifting momentum: Primary Articles inflation surged to 8.52% YoY (index 117.2), led by Non-Food Articles at 17.66% and Minerals at 13.28%, even as Food Articles eased marginally to 5.44%. Manufactured Products inflation expanded to 8.29% YoY (index 108.4), assisted by Chemicals at 13.12%, Textiles at 12.80% , and Basic Metals at 12.56%. Conversely, Fuel and Power inflation decelerated to 20.05% YoY (index 105.4 from 111.1), as Mineral Oils inflation cooled to 32.40% from 46.48%. Meanwhile, WPI Food Index inflation rose to 6.65% YoY from 6.14% in June, driven by manufactured food products at 8.89%.

Industry margins reflect conflicting cost pressures. Output Producer Price Index (PPI) for All Commodities remained flat at 109.9 in July, as Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing rose to 115.6 and Mining and Quarrying fell to 119.4, while Manufactured Products slipped to 108.8 from 109.2. Crucially, the trial Manufacturing Input PPI dropped to 105.9 from 107.1 in June, pointing to moderating raw material costs for producers, led by coke and refined petroleum (99.9 from 113.5) and chemicals (109.4 from 112.5). Potential data revisions remain a key monitor, given the lower provisional response rate of 78.55% in July compared with 98.14% in the final May release — May's WPI was revised up from 109.9 to 110.1 and the trial Input PPI from 104.9 to 106.5.

While wholesale inflation remains elevated, driven by primary articles and manufactured outputs, retail CPI inflation edged up to 4.45% in July 2026. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee projects full-year FY27 CPI inflation at 5.0%, with a peak of 5.90% in Q3, keeping policy rates steady at 5.25% as it monitors near-term food and fuel price volatility amid ongoing geopolitical concerns.

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