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Cooling off trend in crude oil prices is likely to provide near-term support to the index, helping it extend its trading range beyond the 23800–23500 zone. The ongoing consolidation phase appears to be maturing, indicating the possibility of a breakout, particularly after the index held firmly above the crucial 23500 PE OI cluster ahead of the monthly expiry. Technically, the daily RSI has shown a positive divergence crossover below the 50 mark, suggesting early signs of strengthening momentum. However, the ADX continues to remain in the neutral-to-negative zone, implying that a strong trend confirmation is still awaited. A sustained move above 23840 could act as a trigger for further upside, opening the path towards the 24000 mark and beyond. On the downside, the probability of a sharp breakdown below 23500 appears limited, with the 23400–23500 range expected to act as a strong support base in the near term. The presence of consistent intraday reversals indicates a cautiously optimistic undertone. A short-covering rally towards 24000–24160 cannot be ruled out, with a gradual move towards the 24000–24500 zone likely. A buy-on-dips approach with a stock-specific focus remains advisable.

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