Global Cotton Stocks Decline as Demand Improves by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The global cotton outlook for 2026-27 has turned slightly tighter as lower beginning stocks and rising consumption reduce ending inventories. While U.S. cotton production, consumption, exports, and price forecasts remain unchanged, beginning and ending stocks have been revised lower. Global cotton consumption is expected to increase to 121.8 million bales, supported mainly by stronger demand from China. World ending stocks are forecast to decline to 71.1 million bales, reflecting tighter supply conditions. For 2025-26, higher exports from major suppliers including Brazil and the United States have further reduced global inventories and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio.
Key Highlights
- U.S. cotton production and price forecasts remain unchanged for 2026-27.
- U.S. cotton ending stocks are reduced due to lower beginning inventories.
- Global cotton consumption is projected to rise to 121.8 million bales.
- Stronger Chinese demand is supporting global cotton usage.
- World cotton ending stocks are forecast to decline to 71.1 million bales.
Cotton market fundamentals have become slightly more supportive as global inventories continue to tighten amid improving consumption prospects. The latest outlook for the 2026-27 season indicates lower world cotton stocks, driven by reduced beginning inventories and stronger demand from key consuming countries.
In the United States, the cotton balance sheet remains largely unchanged. Production, domestic consumption, exports, and price projections have been maintained, with the season-average farm price forecast at 73 cents per pound. However, beginning and ending stocks have been revised lower by 200,000 bales compared to previous estimates, resulting in a somewhat tighter supply outlook.
For the 2025-26 season, U.S. cotton exports have been increased by 200,000 bales to 12.20 million bales, reflecting stronger international demand. At the same time, domestic mill consumption has been slightly reduced, bringing projected ending stocks down to 4.20 million bales. This has lowered available inventories and strengthened the overall market balance.
Globally, cotton production for 2026-27 remains unchanged at 116 million bales, but consumption is projected to increase to 121.8 million bales. The rise is mainly attributed to stronger demand from China, which continues to support global textile manufacturing activity. Although consumption is expected to decline in countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Korea, increased Chinese demand more than offsets these reductions.
World cotton trade has been revised marginally lower, while global ending stocks are forecast to decline to 71.1 million bales. For 2025-26, higher exports from major suppliers including Brazil, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Turkey have further reduced global inventories and tightened the stocks-to-use ratio.
Rising global cotton consumption and declining inventories are creating a firmer market outlook, with stronger Chinese demand expected to provide continued support to cotton prices in the coming season.
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