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Global wheat supplies for 2026/27 are projected to increase by 6.4 million tonnes to 1,110.4 million tonnes, supported by higher production in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Global consumption is also raised to 829.6 million tonnes, while international trade declines marginally to 208.7 million tonnes due to reduced Russian and Ukrainian exports amid Black Sea disruptions. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise by 4.8 million tonnes to 280.8 million tonnes. In the United States, ending stocks increase to 743 million bushels, while the season-average farm price is lowered to $6.20 per bushel.

Key Highlights

•    Global wheat supplies for 2026/27 increased by 6.4 million tonnes to 1,110.4 million tonnes.

•     Argentina and Australia production forecasts raised by 1.5 million tonnes each to 23 million and 32.5 million tonnes.

•     Global wheat consumption increased by 1.7 million tonnes to 829.6 million tonnes.

•     World wheat trade lowered by 0.3 million tonnes to 208.7 million tonnes amid reduced Russian and Ukrainian exports.

•     Global ending stocks increased by 4.8 million tonnes to 280.8 million tonnes, while US stocks reached 743 million bushels.

Global wheat supplies are projected to increase during the 2026/27 marketing year, reflecting higher production estimates across major exporting countries. The latest projections indicate that global wheat supplies will rise by 6.4 million tonnes to 1,110.4 million tonnes, while ending stocks are expected to increase by 4.8 million tonnes to 280.8 million tonnes. The larger supply outlook could weigh on international wheat prices by improving overall availability and strengthening expectations of comfortable global inventories.

The production outlook has improved significantly for Argentina and Australia, with both countries receiving upward revisions of 1.5 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes and 32.5 million tonnes, respectively. Continued favourable weather conditions have supported crop development as both countries enter their harvesting periods. Production estimates for Kazakhstan and Ukraine have also increased, contributing to the higher global supply forecast.

Global wheat consumption is projected to rise by 1.7 million tonnes to 829.6 million tonnes, mainly due to higher feed and residual use in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. However, global wheat trade is estimated to decline by 0.3 million tonnes to 208.7 million tonnes. Russian and Ukrainian exports have each been reduced by 1 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes, respectively, as Black Sea conflict-related disruptions continue to restrict shipments.

In the United States, domestic wheat use has been reduced by 3 million bushels due to lower food consumption, following a 2% year-on-year decline in wheat milled for flour during July–September. Total exports remain unchanged at 750 million bushels, with higher White wheat exports offsetting weaker HRW shipments. US ending stocks are raised by 3 million bushels to 743 million, while the projected farm price is lowered by $0.10 to $6.20 per bushel.

Higher global production and rising inventories may limit wheat price gains, although Black Sea disruptions and export competitiveness remain important market factors.

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