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Nifty :24576

Indian equity benchmarks concluded the weekly expiry session on a positive note, buoyed by optimism ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire deadline. The Nifty 50 settled at 24,576, gaining 215 points. Market breadth was firmly in favour of the bulls with an (A/D) ratio of 2:1. Broader markets mirrored the benchmark's strength, as the Nifty Smallcap index climbed 0.90%. Sectorally, barring Pharma, all major indices closed in the green, with BFSI, FMCG, and Metals emerging as the top performers.

Technical Outlook

* Index started the day on a positive note wherein intraday dips were bought into. The daily price action resulted into strong bull candle carrying higher high-low structure, indicating buying demand from lower levels.

* Nifty is likely to open gap-down on back of volatile geopolitical cues A key highlight of the session was Bank Nifty which carries a 35% weightage in the benchmark closing above its long-term 200-day EMA for the first time in 28 trading sessions. This relative outperformance provided the necessary momentum for the Nifty to clear the key 24,500 hurdle. Looking ahead, we reiterate our stance and expect index to resume its upward momentum and head towards 24800 being its 200-day EMA.

* Following a sharp rally of ~2,300 points over the last three weeks, the Stochastic Oscillator on both daily and weekly timeframes has entered overbought territory, indicating possibility of profit-booking in near-term. however broader structure remains positive and intact.

* Thereby any such "cool-off" should not be construed as a negative but rather as a healthy consolidation of recent gains. Hence any decline from current level should be used to accumulate quality stocks supported by strong Q4 earnings as strong support is placed at 23700, being 38.2% retracement of current upmove (22182-24601)

* On a broader market perspective, Since the recent bottom formed on April 2, 2026, the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices have rallied 15-17%, while the Nifty has gained only 10%. This performance gap suggests further room for Nifty to catch up. A higher base formation amid ongoing consolidation should set the stage for a march toward 24,800 in the coming weeks.

* In the process, volatility would remain elevated on the back of geopolitical development as well as onset of earning season. Hence, we expect stock specific activity to remain in focus.

Our constructive bias is further validated by following observations:

1.Mirroring the historical volatility of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the index is repeating a similar "war-induced" pattern. Recent corrections have arrested near the 11% mark, followed by a resilient one-month rally of approximately 9%, suggesting that markets have priced in the geopolitical risks and are entering a recovery phase.

2.On a global market perspective, with the S&P 500 recently crossing the historic 7,000 mark and the Nasdaq hitting record highs, we expect the Indian markets to witness "catch-up" activity.

3.Market breadth has seen a significant improvement, indicating broad-based participation rather than a narrow rally. The % of stocks trading above their 50-day SMA has jumped to 73% (up from 15% last month), while those above their 200-day SMA have increased to 40%, signaling that mid and long-term trends are turning bullish across various sectors.

Key Monitorable:

A.Q4 earning season

B.Further decline in Crude, US Dollar Index.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend - Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame, indicating bias positive.

* Levels - Buy around 80% retracement level of previous 2 days range.

Nifty Bank :57371

The Bank Nifty Index ended the day on a positive note. BankNifty settle the day at 57371 up 1.35%

Technical Outlook:

* Index started the day on a flat note and then traded with positive bias during the session. The daily price action resulted into strong Bull candle with higher high higher low and closed above 200-day EMA, for first time Since March 09, 2026 indicating elevated buying demand at support base.

* The Index has partially filled the gap resistance (57000-57700), and closed around 57350, as 57700 is immediate resistance according to the change of polarity principle of primary uptrend.

• Key point to highlight is that Index has closed above its 200-day EMA for first time Since March 2026, indicating revival of upward momentum. Going ahead as Index has decisively close above 200-day EMA (57020). Hence, we believe index to resume its upward momentum and head towards 57800 in the coming weeks.

* Meanwhile stochastic oscillator in daily and weekly time-frame has entered into overbought condition, indicating possibility of near-term profit booking cannot be ruled out but as a healthy consolidation of recent gains. Hence any decline from current level should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks backed by strong Q4 earnings as strong support is now placed around 55800 being 10-day EMA coinciding with last Fridays low.

* On the broader space, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed the benchmark and closed positive up 0.8%. Forming higher high higher low. Index is consolidating above its short term 20-day EMA, indicating buying demand at elevated support base. A sustain and close above 100-day EMA would accelerate the next leg of upmove towards 9100 being 61.8% Retracement of Feb-April26 decline.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame, indicating bias positive bias

* Levels- Buy around 80% retracement of previous 2 day’s range

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