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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 04th March 2026 by Bajaj Broking Research

Market Closing Commentary

Indian markets ended sharply lower on March 4, with the Nifty slipping below the 24,500 mark amid rising geopolitical tensions. Escalating conflict and a spike in crude oil prices pushed markets into a phase of heightened uncertainty. Persistent selling by overseas investors continues to pressure domestic markets, triggering capital outflows and dampening liquidity as well as investor sentiment.

The rupee tumbled to a new low of 92.30 against the US dollar ,weighed down by surging crude and persistent geopolitical risks. It opened at 92.05 and fell to 92.30 in the interbank market. Volatility surged, with the India VIX jumping 22% to 20.83 — its highest level since May 2025 — reflecting elevated investor anxiety.

At close, the Sensex dropped1,122.66 points (1.40%) to 79,116.19, while the Nifty declined 385.20 points (1.55%) to 24,480.50. Except for IT, all sectoral indices ended in the red, with Infra, PSU Banks, Realty, Media, Oil & Gas, Auto, and Metal stocks falling 2–4%. The Nifty Midcap and Small-cap indices also lost around 2% each.

Nifty Outlook 

 Index formed a small bull candle with shadows in either direction and a bearish gap above its head ( 24865-24602) signaling continuation of the corrective trend. The index in the process closed below its last month low (24,571). Nifty on Wednesday session tested the August 2025 low (24337) and witnessed a mild pullback during intraday session to close above 24450 levels. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues and escalating geo-political tension. A follow through weakness below Wednesday low (24305) can led to test of the support area of 24,200-24,000 being the value of the trendline joining the major lows of CY23 and CY25.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Index formed a small bull candle with an upper shadow and a bearish gap above its head ( 59840-59058) signalling continuation of the corrective trend. The index in the process retraced 80% of its previous up move. Bias remains down below Tuesday’s gap down area ( 59840-59058). Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues and escalating geo-political tension. Immediate bias remain down and trader should use intraday pullback as a selling opportunity. Index likely to consolidate in the range of 58,000-60,000 in the coming sessions. A breakout or a breakdown will signal next directional movement.

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