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Market Closing Commentary

Benchmark indices opened sharply lower and remained under pressure as markets witnessed a sell-off following the RBI’s rate hike. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points and shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening,” triggering a negative reaction across the benchmarks. Continued weakness in the rupee further weighed on investor sentiment.

The Nifty 50 declined 0.76% to close at 22,603, while the Sensex fell 0.59% to close at 72,638.

On the sectoral front, PSU Banks and Media were the key gainers, while Metal, Realty, Auto and IT remained the major laggards.

The broader market remained mixed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 declining 0.63%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.30%.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty formed a bearish candle which remained enclosed inside previous session price range signaling consolidation with corrective bias as RBI in its monetary policy outcome hike the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and shifts stance to "Calibrated Tightening". Index closed the session around the 22,600 levels.

Going ahead strength above Tuesday’s high of 22,776 will signal extension of the recent pullback towards 23,000 levels. While failure to move above Tuesday’s high will signal consolidation in the range of 22,200-22,750.

On the downside key support area to watch out is placed at 22,400-22,200 being the confluence of April 2026 low, the 200 weeks EMA and long-term rising trendline support. A breach below the April low of 22,182 will signal extension of the decline.

Index for a meaningful trend reversal would require forming a sustained Higher High–Higher Low structure in the daily chart and reclaim the 23,000-23,100 level being the confluence of last week high and recent breakdown area.

 

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty formed a high wave candle with a small real body and long shadows in either direction highlighting intraday volatility on the RBI Monetary policy outcome session. Index closed the session around the 55,000 levels.

Going ahead, a move above Wednesday’s high of 55,340 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,700 and 56,200 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area.

Failure to move above last four sessions high of 55,340 will signal some consolidation in the range of 54,000-55,340 levels in the coming sessions.

Index has key short-term support at 53,500-54,000 being the confluence of the last week low and the key retracement of the previous up move.

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