IGI Logo

Market Closing Commentary

Benchmark indices extended their decline on 13 March, falling for the third consecutive session as weak global cues and persistent foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiment, with Brent crude stabilizing near $100 amid the ongoing West Asia conflict lead to sharp decline in the market. At close, the Sensex fell 1,470.50 points or 1.93 percent to 74,563.92, while the Nifty declined 488.05 points or 2.06 percent to 23,151.10.

The Indian rupee weakened for the second consecutive week, settling at a fresh record low of 92.45, as geopolitical concerns continued to pressure the local currency. All sectoral indices ended in the red, with auto, PSU banks, metals, and media leading the decline, each falling 3–4%. In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices also remained under pressure, shedding around 2.5% each.

Nifty Outlook 

Index on weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline. Index in the process slipped to 11 months low and in the process breached 100 weeks EMA and rising trendline joining the lows of CY23 and CY25.

Index trends remain down as it continues to form lower high and lower low in short- and medium-term time frame. With key support on the downside to watch out for is placed around 22,700-22,400. The sharp decline has pushed daily oscillators into oversold territory, with the 14-period RSI below 30. A short-term pullback is possible, but there are no clear reversal signals yet. The index needs to start forming higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis and close above last week high 24,303 to signal a pause or reversal in the downtrend.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Index on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low and a bearish gap above its head (57696-57097). Index in the process closed at 6-month low highlighting downward bias. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term amid uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment. 

Technically, the index sustaining below the 53,600 level could trigger further downside towards the 52,500–51,800 zone in the coming weeks. This range is significant as it coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the January 2025 lows and also aligns with the low of the breakout candle formed in April 2025, making it an important demand zone to monitor. On the upside, the 56,000 level is likely to act as an immediate resistance, and the index remaining below this mark is expected to keep the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer