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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 30th September 2026 by Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking

Market Closing Commentary

 Benchmark indices witnessed a decline from the day’s highs and closed near the day’s lows as the market remained volatile at the start of the new series. Continued global uncertainty and an intraday spike in Brent crude oil prices kept investor sentiment cautious.

The Nifty 50 closed 0.42% lower at 22,620, while the Sensex declined 0.07% to close at 72,480.

On the sectoral front, Media, Realty, Banking, Auto and Energy were the key gainers, while Pharma, Metal and FMCG remained the major laggards.

The broader market remained relatively resilient, with the Nifty Midcap 100 gaining marginally by 0.02% and the Nifty Small cap 100 rising 0.27%.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty formed an inverted hammer candle with a small real body and a long upper shadow signalling selling pressure around 22,800 levels.  Nifty opened on a flat note and moved higher in the first half of trade to form an intraday high of 22809. However, selling pressure at higher levels saw the index gave up its gains and closed lower around the 22,600 levels.

Immediate bias in the index continues to remain down and a follow through weakness will signal extension of decline towards the key support area of 22,400 being the confluence of the trendline support joining the major lows of the past two years and the 200-week EMA.   

A move above Thursday’s high of 22,810 will signal a pullback towards the 23,000 levels. However, for a meaningful trend reversal index would require forming a sustained Higher High–Higher Low structure and reclaim the 23,000-23,100 level. A sustained move above 23,100 could signal a pause in the ongoing downtrend.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low signaling pullback from extreme oversold territory. Index in the process snapped its two-session decline and closed higher by 0.7%.

Going ahead, a follow through pullback above Thursday’s high 55,135 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area.

Failure to move above Thursday’s high will signal some consolidation in the range of 53,500-55,100 levels in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome during next week.

Index has key short-term support at 53,500-53,000 being the confluence of the previous major lows and measuring implication of the recent range breakdown (58,500-56,000).

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