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• Equity benchmark Nifty declined nearly 1% after a two-day relief rally, as the RBI’s first interest-rate hike in four years and its shift in policy stance to ‘calibrated tightening’ weighed on market sentiment. The RBI raised the FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5% earlier, while marginally increasing its FY27 real GDP growth projection to 7.1% from 6.7%, which also dampened investor sentiment.

• Market sentiment was further pressured by crude oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, weak global market cues, the USD/INR climbing to a nearly two-month high of around 97, and continued FII selling. Asian and European markets declined up to 1% as investors remained cautious ahead of the US earnings season, amid rising US Treasury yields and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today.

• The Nifty fell 173 points, or 0.8%, to close at 22,603. The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 5.5%, in line with expectations; however, its hawkish commentary weighed on equities. The Nifty Metal Index was the biggest sectoral loser, pressured by the US Dollar Index rising above the 100 level. The Nifty IT and Realty indices declined more than 1% each, while the Nifty PSU Bank Index gained 1%. Refinery stocks outperformed, with Chennai Petroleum and MRPL surging 14% and 5%, respectively.

TechnicalOutlook:

• Nifty index opened on a negative note near 22700s zone and witnessed volatile swings on either sides in the initial hours. Post which the index failed to sustain at higher levels as selling pressure emerged and it gradually moved towards it’s day's low. It formed a bearish candle on the daily chart as multiple hurdles continue to remain intact.

• Now if it crosses and holds above 22650 zones, bounce could be seen towards 22750 then 22850 zones while a hold below the same could see weakness towards 22500 then 22400 zones.

DerivativeOutlook:

• Nifty future closed negative with losses of 0.78% at 22618 levels. Positive setup seen in Kalyan, Paytm, PNB Housing, MCX, PNB, Supreme and Radico while weakness seen in National Aluminium, Titan, Indusind Bank, AU Bank, Hindalco, Ashokley, Cholafin, Colpal, UPL, Biocon, JSW Steel, Dalbharat and Inox Wind.

• RBI Lifts Rates for First Time in Near Four Years - Central bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly four years, joining regional peers as rising inflation and a weakening currency drove policymakers to change course. The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first hike since Sanjay Malhotra took over as governor in December 2024. RBI raises FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5% earlier. Here are quarterly projections. The central bank now projects India’s real GDP growth at 7.1% in FY27 as against 6.7% projected earlier.

• L&T Wins ‘Major’ Order for 1,600 MW Thermal Power Plant Work – Company unit has secured a limited notice to proceed from DVC CIL Power Pvt. for the main plant package of the 1,600 MW Chandrapura thermal power plant in Jharkhand,

• Kalyan Jewellers- company announced consolidated revenue growth of 26% y/y in the July-September period. Revenue increase was driven by 27% growth in India operations and 18% growth internationally

• RBI to allow interoperability between NBFC account aggregators - The Reserve Bank of India on October 7 announced the implementation of interoperability among nonbanking financial company account aggregators, with the objective of enhancing customer convenience.

• HUL Hikes In Detergent Prices Across Wheel, Surf Excel, Rin In October – Company has raised prices across its detergent portfolio in October, with Wheel, Surf Excel and Rin seeing price increases across multiple pack sizes, according to dealer checks. The latest hikes range from 2.2% to 7.1%, with several products seeing their second, third or even fourth price increase of the year.

• Bharti hike postpaid tariffs by Rs 50 across the board - Company hiked the tariffs for its postpaid plans by Rs 50 across the board. The tariff hike is effective today itself. Postpaid accounts for nearly 8% to 12%

• Welspun Enterprises - company secured order worth ~Rs 66 crore from the New Delhi Municipal Council for sewer rehabilitation

Global Market Update

• Asian Market - Asian stocks declined as investors remained cautious on technology investments ahead of the US earnings season, rising US Treasury yields and FOMC Minutes of Meetings to be release toady. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea Index declined up to 2%

• European Market – European stocks ended a three-day run of gains as oil prices rose and bond yields pushed higher, dampening sentiment. UK, Germany and France Index declined up to 1%

• Commodity – Oil prices rose 2% to above $101/bbl as traders weighed fresh Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and storm-related U.S. Gulf production shut-ins against recovering Middle East crude supplies.

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