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Nifty :23659

Technical Outlook

Day that was.. Indian equity benchmarks concluded the session on a positive note, tracking a cool-off in crude oil prices to close at 23,659 up ~40 points. Market breadth favored advance with an advance-decline ratio of 1.2:1. Broader markets relatively outperformed the benchmark, as the Nifty Midcap index gained 0.40%. Sectorally, except for FMCG and IT, all major indices closed in the green, with Oil & Gas, Auto, and Realty emerging as the top performers. Technical Outlook:

* Despite a gap-down opening, the index staged a strong intraday recovery of ~ 280 points, successfully defending its previous weekly low of 23,262. The intraday price action formed a bullish candle with a higher high-low structure, indicating strong buying demand around it previous week low.

* The index is poised for a gap-up opening, driven by optimism surrounding US-Iran deal and a cooling off in crude oil prices. Structurally, over the past 5-weeks, Nifty has retraced merely 50% of its preceding three-week, 11% rally. This shallow retracement pace signifies healthy consolidation, allowing the index to cool off from overbought conditions and build a base for the next leg of upmove.

* However, for a meaningful pullback to materialize, the Index must decisively cross and sustain above its immediate resistance of 20- day EMA and contracting triangle placed at 23800. Failing which will result into prolong consolidate within a narrow range of 23,100- 23,800, while offering stock-specific opportunities.

* Amidst this consolidation stock specific activity to remain in focus tracking ongoing earnings season. Notably, We expect broader market to relatively outperform the large caps as the ratio chart of Nifty500 vs Nifty 100 has resolved breakout of past two years consolidation. Such breakout would result into acceleration in Midcap and small caps outperformance going ahead

* On the sectoral front, the IT index has staged a sharp 6% recovery from its decade-long rising trendline support, indicating bounce from key support amid oversold conditions. Historically, since CY06, the IT index has witnessed a maximum price-wise correction of 35%, with time-wise corrections lasting between six and seven quarters. Currently, the index has corrected 42% in past 6 quarter and approached its long-term rising trendline. This alignment with the historical rhythm offers a highly favorable risk-reward setup at the current juncture.

* In the process, bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out amid ongoing geopolitical concerns, macro tailwind and Q4 earning seasons. Hence, one should focus on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong Q4 earnings as key support is placed at 23200 being 61.80% retracement of previous move (22182-24601) and the price gap support from 7th April 2026.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend - Supportive efforts emerged from 50% of its preceding upmove (22182-24601)

* Levels - Buy around 50% retracement of yesterday range

Nifty Bank : 53562

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

The Bank Nifty Index the day on a marginally positive note at 53562 on back of mixed global cues. Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed, gaining 0.5%.

Technical Outlook

* The index recovered post gap-down opening and found supportive efforts from 80% retracement from last 2 days upmove. The daily price action resulted into bull candle with lower shadow indicating buying demand from lower levels

* Over past 10 sessions, Index has failed to decisively close above previous session high. Going ahead, a decisive close above last sessions high (53640) is required to pause the ongoing corrective phase that would open the door for a pullback towards 20 days EMA that coincided with last week’s high of 55000. Failure to do so would result into prolongation of consolidation in 55000-52800 zone.

* Index rebounded from gap-area support formed on 7th April and 61.8% retracement of entire April rally (49954-57456) at 52800 making it strong support in short term.

* Nifty PSU Bank formed bull candle with higher high lower low and rebounded from crucial support zone of 7800 being placement of 52-week EMA coincided with April low of 7830. Thereby, holding 7800 level on a weekly closing basis is important to watch out for as that would help indexx to stage a recovery going ahead

* Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts emerged around 61.8% retracement of its preceding rally (49954-57456)

• Levels- Buy around 50% retracement of yesterday range

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