Nifty ends March series weak, hits monthly low 22284, closes 22331 - Tradebulls Securities Pvt Ltd
Nifty
Nifty ended the March series on a weak note, forming a fresh monthly low at 22284 and closing at 22331, slipping below the key swing level of 22512. Despite this, the daily RSI held above 30, indicating a positive divergence that may trigger a short-term bounce if the index sustains above 22720. However, the broader trend remains weak, with downside risks still dominant. Immediate resistance is seen near 23000, supported by strong OI concentration, while the 23620–23730 zone coinciding with a recent gap and 20 DEMA remains a strong supply area. A sustainable reversal would require confirmation on the weekly timeframe above these levels. On the downside, the 22260–22000 zone is likely to act as an immediate extreme support band, where a technical bounce could emerge. However, if bearish momentum persists, the index may gradually drift towards the broader demand zone between 21930 (200 WEMA) and 21620 (200 MEMA), which remain crucial levels to assess medium-term demand strength. Macros continue to weigh on sentiment, including elevated USD/INR, firm crude above $90, persistent FII outflows, and geopolitical tensions. The broader trading range for the april series is expected to remain between 23500 and 22500 for now. Traders are advised to avoid aggressive long positions and instead focus on disciplined risk management along with appropriate hedging strategies.
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