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Nifty : 24176

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• The equity benchmark extended its winning streak for a second consecutive session, with the Nifty closing at 24,166, up ~170 points. Market breadth remained positive with an (A/D) ratio of 2:1. Broader markets outperformed the benchmark, as the Nifty Smallcap gained 1.20%. Sectorally, barring PSU banks, all major indices closed in the positive. Realty, Consumer Durables, and Auto were the top performers, while the beaten-down IT sector witnessed a strong recovery of 4.50%.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the day with a positive gap-up, and extending its gains throughout the session as intraday pullbacks were bought into. This price action formed a strong bullish candle with a higher high-low structure on the daily timeframe, indicating a prevailing positive bias.

• Key highlight is that index has logged a resolute breakout from its 3-month falling channel, followed by a base formation in the vicinity of 50-day EMA, indicating resumption of uptrend. Furthermore, Index has close above its 100-day EMA which has been acting as a stiff resistance since Feb 2026. Going ahead, we expect index to sustain above this breakout area and eventually pave the way for its move towards 24,800 in the monthly of July.

• Structurally, over past 9 session index has seen consolidating near 38.2% retracement of its previous 6-days ~1100 points upmove, indicating slower pace of retracement. The elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracement underscores underlying strength. Hence, any decline should be used to accumulate quality stocks, as strong support holds at 23600 being gap support dated 12th June 2026 coincided with 50% retracement of June rally (23072-24189). Our Constructive bias is based on following observation :

a) Bank Nifty: After 3 months corrective phase, index closed above previous month’s high, confirming bullish reversal. Further, five years consolidation breakout on ratio chart of Bank Nifty vs Nifty signifies outperformance going ahead. Expect Bank Nifty to head towards 60000 in the near term

b) Mid/Small-Caps: Cup & Handle breakout on monthly chart of Midcap index augurs well for acceleration of upward momentum towards 70,000 (14% upside). While, 18 months falling trend line breakout in small cap index bodes well for catch up activity towards 22600 (20% upside)

c) Easing of geopolitical tension: Re-opening of Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp correction in Brent Crude Oil prices which is trading at three months low ($71). The softening of base metal prices along with falling crude oil is expected to moderate inflation pressure

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – supportive efforts emerging around its 50-day EMA, indicating strong demand from key moving average

• Levels – Buy around Thursday’s close

Nifty Bank : 58033

Technical Outlook

Day that was : Bank Nifty Index ended the sensex expiry day on flat note at 58032.

Te chnical Outlook :

• Index failed to capitalize initial up move and seen minor profit booking, resulting it settled near days low. The daily price action resulted into bear candle with higher high higher low indicating breather at higher levels.

• Going ahead we expect index to continue its upward momentum and challenge the recent swing high of 58700, that would pave the way towards 60000 in coming weeks

• The ratio chart of Bank Nifty vs Nifty has witnessed breakout from a 5-years consolidation. This technical setup signals that the banking index is poised to accelerate its relatively outperformance and head towards 60000 in the coming month as it is gap-area formed on 2nd March 2026

• The elevated buying demand highlights strength, thereby any decline should be capitalized as incremental buying opportunity as strong support is placed at 56200 being 200-day EMA coinciding with 61.8% retracement of current up move(55726- 58021)

• PSU Bank Index seen breather after buying demand emerging from 50 days EMA in yesterday session. Over past seven sessions index has seen healthy consolidation after 11% rally seen during June. Going forward we expect Index to consolidate in range 8450-8800 in coming sessions and set the stage for next leg of up move

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Higher base formation above 10 days EMA signifies positive bias

• Levels : Buy around Thursday’s close

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