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Nifty : 23162

Technical Outlook

Day that was .. Indian equity benchmarks concluded a volatile session on a negative note, tracking negative global cues backed by geopolitical uncertainties. Nifty settled the day at 23,161 down ~53 points.. Market breadth was in favour of decline with an A/D ratio of 2:1. Broader markets underperformed the benchmark, with Nifty Midcap and Smallcap losing 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Sectorally, baring Pharma and BFSI all major indices closed in the red, led by IT and Consumer durables as the top laggards.

Technical Outlook :

• Post gap-down opening, index recovered from lower levels in the first half. However, selling pressure emerged in the latter half near the immediate resistance at 10-day EMA (23,345). As a result, the daily price action resulted into small-bodied candle with upper shadow, indicating profit booking at higher levels.

• Today, Indes is likely to witness gap up opening tracking optimism around deescalation of geopolitical conflict. Going ahead, holding above lower band of the contracting triangle will keep the pullback option open towards 23500 being 20-day EMA and a decisive close above 23500 would open the door for the next leg of upmove towards 24000 being previous swing high.

• Since April 2026 peak, the index has been trading in a contracting triangle pattern. Every decline during this phase has seen a slower pace of retracement where it spent 8 sessions to recover 61.8% - 80% of the decline. Over the last six sessions, the index has been consolidating near the lower band of this triangle, successfully holding above the crucial 61.8% retracement level of the 11% April rally. This prolonged consolidation at key support suggests the current decline is approaching its price and time wise maturity amid oversold conditions on weekly stochastic, pointing to a possible pullback rally

• Hence, any decline from current level should be used a buying opportunity to accumulate stock backed by strong earnings wherein strong support is placed at 22700 being 80% retracement level of April up move.

Key Monitorable : a) Inflation: Upcoming India inflation data. b) The pair of USD/INR has seen good correction after RBI’s move of exempting FPI from tax on any interest and capital gains on investment in Indian Government Securities. Further decline would help equities to revive momentum c) Crude Oil: Brent crude is trading at two months low below $90 mark. Confirmation of geopolitical de-escalation will result into further cool-off in oil prices, boosting Indian equities market

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Base formation of 61.8% retracement levels of last rally

• Levels – Buy around 23.6% retracement of yesterday range

Nifty Bank : 55176

Technical Outlook

Day that was : Bank Nifty Index ended the weekly expiry session on a flat to positive note up 0.14% at 55176 levels. Nifty PSU Bank Index extended the breather for second consecutive session losing 0.8%

Technical Outlook :

• BankNifty after initial decline recovered till previous sessions high and gave most of the gains in second half to end on a flat note. The daily price action resulted into bull candle with upper shadow indicating profit booking after recent upmove.

• Today, Indes is likely to witness gap up opening tracking optimism around deescalation of geopolitical conflict Key point to highlight is that with two days breather, Index is retesting its falling trendline breakout area and forming higher base above 50-day EMA indicating healthy consolidation. Going forward we expect Index to resolve out of two sessions identical highs around 55600 and head towards target of 56,500 in coming weeks, being previous swing high and 80% retracement of recent decline (57456- 52783).

• Index has witnessed slower pace of retracement. Where in it is important to note that over five weeks it has relatively outperformed Nifty, as we have seen Nifty breaching May lows but Banknifty defended May low and now forming higher base indicating resilience. This makes us believe to revise support upward towards 53800 levels being 61.8% retracement of current upmove.

• Nifty PSU Bank Index is retesting four months falling trendline breakout area. Structurally Index over past four weeks forming higher base above 52-week EMA. Going ahead we expect Index to regain momentum and head towards 8800 levels being 80% retracement of current decline(9095-7800)

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Classic breakout and retest from two months falling trend line signifies resumption of uptrend

• Levels - Buy around yesterday highs

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