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Nifty : 23053

Technical Outlook

Week that was ..

India’s equity benchmark outshone global peers as the week settled on a strong note at 23,053, up 2%. The recovery was broad-based, as Nifty Midcap rose 2.7% and Nifty Smallcap surged 4%. Among sectors, Pharma staged a sharp rebound, accompanied by gains in Realty and Consumption, while Oil & Gas continued to underperform.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the week on a positive note and gradually inched upward as the week progressed. Consequently, index recovered last week’s lost ground and settled above the psychological mark of 23000. The weekly price action formed a sizable bull candle within last week’s candle, indicating prolonged consolidation

• Going forward, volatility is likely to remain elevated as global focus turns to the US mid-term elections. The outcome is set to shape key macro variables, including crude oil prices and US 10-year bond yields, with meaningful ripple effects on growth-oriented emerging markets like India.

• Amid this volatile backdrop, we expect Nifty to consolidate within the broader 23,500–21,700 range. A sustained close above 23,500 would confirm the conclusion of the corrective bias and open the door for the next leg of the up move. On the downside, strong support remains at 21,700 that has held firm over the past two year.

• Despite persistent global headwinds, Nifty has shown remarkable resilience by holding above its long-term 200-week EMA for the fifth consecutive week. A 25-year historical data reveals that, barring the extreme episodes of 2001, 2008, and 2020, breaches below the 200-week EMA have rarely extended beyond a median decline of ~3%. In current scenario that corroborates with key support level of 21700. More importantly, building medium term portfolio during such episodes has historically garnered 10% returns over the following 3-6 months.

• The Indian market had lagged its global counterparts due to AI-driven momentum. However, the recent global sell-off in AI-driven stocks, driven by concerns about Fed rate hikes and the financing of AI investments, could provide a supportive tailwind for the growth-oriented Indian market, potentially attracting FII’s in the near future.

• Nifty midcap index staged a rebound after defending its key long-term rising trend line that coincides with price parity of 16% correction seen during early part of 2026. Thereby follow-through strength would help to revive the upward momentum in the broader market.

Monitorable Key Indicators:

• US Mid-term Election

• Crude Oil

• Auto Sales data

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Formation of higher high low signifies positive bias

• Levels – Buy around Fridays close.

Nifty Bank : 54687

Technical Outlook

Week that was :

Bank Nifty settled the session on a positive note, up 0.7. At 54687 levels. Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed by gaining 2% for the week.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the week on negative note. However, supportive efforts from September lows around 53800 levels which helped Index to recover losses and settle above 54600 levels. The weekly price action formed is bullish piecing line candle, indicating supportive efforts from lower levels.

• Going ahead volatility is likely to remain elevated ahead of US mid-term election. The follow trough strength above psychological mark of 55000 would help index to extend the pullback towards 56000 mark being 80% retracement of recent decline.

• In the process, 53800 would continue to act as immediate being placement of September low

• On the oscillator front, weekly stochastic recorded bullish crossover after bouncing from oversold territory

• Nifty PSU Bank Index formed bullish Engulfing and close near its 52 weeks EMA which has been respected over past seven months. The formation of higher high-low on the weekly chart would open the door for meaningful pullback.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Robust recovery from key support of 53800 confirms strong support zone

• Levels : Buy around Fridays close.

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