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Nifty : 23328

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

Equity benchmark settled the weekly expiry session lower at 23328, down around 85 pts reversing sharply from the day’s high before finding meaningful buying demand around the 23,300-support zone. Market breadth remained in favor of declines, reflecting profit booking across the tape. Sectorally, Media, Realty and Chemicals witnessed traction while IT and PSU Banks saw subdued action amid mild profit booking.

Technical Outlook :

• The index experienced a volatile trading session, with selling emerging around the Monday’s high and the daily price action resulting into a bearish candle with higher high and lower low. However, the subsequent recovery from the 23,300 zone highlights a decisive emergence of buying demand, making this level an important near-term support floor. • Structurally, the large range candle formed on 15th September continues to govern near-term price action, with all subsequent session trading completely inside its high-low(23592-23118) boundaries. The ability to sustain above 23,100 would allow the index to continue its base-building process.

• Among momentum indicators, the daily RSI is levelling out near the 22 zone, historically marking an inflection point where aggressive selling pressure exhausts. Simultaneously, the weekly Stochastic oscillator has plunged into deep oversold territory (placed at 16), indicating stretched downside momentum ripe for a potential pullback rally.

• The Nifty has been consolidating within a 23,100–23,500 range. Holding above 23,300 keeps the immediate pullback alive toward 23,500, while a decisive break above 23,500 is expected to trigger momentum up to 24,000. Conversely, if today's demand response at 23,300 fails, major support shifts lower to the 23,100–23,000 zone.

• From the medium-term perspective, on the downside, key support is placed at 22700 coinciding with the 80% macro retracement of the April-August rally, which serves as a major structural floor.

• On the commodity front, fresh hopes of US-Iran diplomatic de-escalation have pushed Brent crude below the $100 mark. Sustained downward pressure on oil will lower import bills and further boost domestic market sentiment.

Key Monitorable :

1. Geopolitical developments and energy-supply risks

2. Crude oil trajectory and global inflation expectations (cool-off in crude combined with Rupee depreciation could provide cushion)

3. US yields, dollar strength, and emerging-market flows

4. Relative strength in Bank Nifty and resilience in broader markets

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Highly volatile rangebound structure with a cautious positive bias above 23,300.

• Levels – Buy near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from last Tuesday’s low to this Tuesday’s high.

Nifty Bank : 56215

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty ended the Nifty weekly expiry session on negative note, at 56215 down 0.4% on back of mixed global cues.

Technical Outlook :

• Index started the session with a positive opening and failed to capitalize gains around previous session high and reacted lower and closed near low point of the day. As a result, daily price action formed a bear candle with higher high lower low, indicating breather

• For second consecutive day index reacted lower after facing resistance at 56,700 resistance zone, being the 200-day EMA and previous session high. Meanwhile, a decisive close above the previous session high around 56700 will open the door for a potential pullback towards 57600 being 80% retracement of current decline(58025-55700).

• Immediate support is placed around 55700-55800 remains important support area being 50% retracement of May-June rally (52783-58706).

• The PSU Bank Index formed small bear candle closing at its 52-week EMA, indicating supportive efforts at lower levels. Going ahead, holding 8150 will lead to pullback towards 8600 levels being 61.8% retracement of current decline.

• Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Prolongation of consolidation around 52 weeks EMA

• Levels: Buy around Tuesdays low.

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