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Below the Perspective on Natural Gas by Ashish Rajodiya, Head of Commodities, PL Capital

US natural gas is pushing to its highest level since mid-July, with Henry Hub up about 1.9% to $3.02 per MMBtu, as forecasters flag a warmer-than-usual stretch of autumn weather that should keep gas-fired power plants running harder than usual for this time of year. MCX natural gas has now risen for a second straight session — up more than 3% yesterday and adding another 2.4% today to ?289.26 — a sharper move than the US benchmark's gain, as the domestic contract plays catch-up. The rally is coming even as inventories keep building: the latest EIA weekly report showed a 44 billion cubic feet injection, taking working gas stocks to 3,298 Bcf as of mid-September, which continues to cushion the market against a sharper spike even on hot-demand days. That tension — genuine near-term heat demand against a storage cushion still comfortably stocked heading into the withdrawal season — is likely to keep natural gas choppy rather than trending cleanly in either direction; a colder-than-expected read on the upcoming winter outlook or a run of unusually strong LNG feedgas demand would be needed to extend this two-day move further, while Thursday's fresh storage report showing another large build would put renewed pressure on the recent bounce.

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