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Below the Quote on Automotive Sales Numbers by Vinay Jain, Head of Research & Fund Manager, Karma Capital

The Indian automobile industry witnessed strong festive demand in October, with two-wheelers and passenger vehicles leading the recovery. Two-wheeler registrations grew 11% YoY during the first 21 days of the festive season, while passenger vehicle registrations increased 6%, despite a high base. October wholesale volumes were particularly encouraging, with most major OEMs reporting double-digit growth due to channel inventory build-up ahead of Diwali. Two-wheelers remained the strongest segment, supported by healthy domestic demand and exports. The demand was especially visible in the electric two-wheeler segment, where demand beat previous all-time-highs set in October 2024.

 The commercial vehicle segment continues to benefit from robust demand, with truck volumes growing strongly, supported by improved economic activity and fleet replacement. However, the tractor segment remains relatively weak, with wholesale volumes declining 10-12% YoY in October, reflecting some moderation in rural demand. Overall, the festive season performance reinforces the sustained demand momentum across most segments.

 From an investment perspective, we would closely track retail demand versus wholesale dispatches to monitor inventory build-up, market-share trends, new product launches, order books and export momentum. In two-wheelers and passenger vehicles, the ability to sustain market-share gains, particularly in SUVs and electric vehicles, will be an important differentiator. In commercial vehicles, fleet utilisation, freight availability and replacement demand will remain key indicators, while rural demand, monsoon trends and farm economics will determine the recovery in tractors.

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