Quote on Commodity Market Outlook Gold, Silver & Crude Oil by Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Analyst at Choice Broking
Below the Quote on Commodity Market Outlook Gold, Silver & Crude Oil by Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Analyst at Choice Broking
Bullion Outlook
MCX gold prices declined around 3–4% over the past week, with the recent low recorded at 138249. However, prices witnessed some relief at Monday’s opening, supported by a nearly 3% decline in crude oil prices and festive-season demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around $101.9, while USD/INR is hovering near 95.2, providing an important currency backdrop for domestic bullion prices. Despite the recent correction, festive buying interest and a softer crude oil market could offer some near-term support. However, the overall trend will depend on movements in the dollar, crude oil prices and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.
MCX silver is trading around 180980, gaining approximately 1% during Monday’s opening session after witnessing significant selling pressure. The Gold/Silver ratio is currently around 78:1, while it recently climbed to 79.4, highlighting silver’s sharper decline compared with gold, the pressure amid expectations surrounding upcoming US GDP data, elevated crude oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, which have strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Additionally, subdued physical demand from India and China, cautious central bank buying and liquidity-driven selling have weighed on bullion sentiment. Although Monday’s recovery offers some relief, silver may continue to witness volatility until there is greater clarity on the US economic outlook and monetary policy direction.
Crude Oil Outlook
MCX crude oil prices opened with a sharp gap-down of around 3.7% on Monday, trading near Rs 9,566, while WTI crude was hovering around $100.70 per barrel and Brent crude near $114.70 per barrel. The decline followed three days of discussions between Iranian and Qatari officials aimed at finding a diplomatic resolution to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Hopes of diplomatic progress, along with a relatively calm weekend, eased immediate geopolitical tensions and reduced the risk premium in crude oil prices. Going forward, developments in diplomatic negotiations and the potential impact on Middle Eastern supply flows will remain key factors determining crude oil’s direction.
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