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Below the Quote on Daily Market Commentary for September 25th 2026 by Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Markets are likely to remain sensitive to crude prices, global bond yields and developments in West Asia, where Saudi-Houthi attacks and the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz could keep energy prices volatile. Any progress on the phased reopening under discussion would be the key relief trigger. Friday's recovery was selective rather than broad-based following Thursday's sharp sell-off, supported by value buying, easing Brent crude and positive Asian cues. The Nifty closed at 23,140, up 0.3%, while broader markets were mixed, with the Midcap100 down 0.1% and the Smallcap100 up 0.1%. Brent eased around 1.2% to USD 105.3/bbl and India VIX declined 3.4%, pointing to some moderation in near-term volatility. Sectorally, Nifty Auto and Realty led the gains and Nifty Healthcare was the top laggard. The rupee strengthened 0.1% to 95.9/USD, drawing relief from a fall in crude. Reports of potential US-Iran discussions and a phased arrangement around the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to the moderation in crude, though geopolitical risk remains elevated. Next week, markets will track India's August industrial production and the federal fiscal deficit for cues on domestic momentum and the consolidation path, following the sharp acceleration in September's flash PMIs. Globally, China's official and Caixin PMIs, US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, and the eurozone September inflation cluster will shape expectations around the global rate cycle, with commentary from three Fed speakers and the BoJ's meeting minutes carrying added weight after last week's synchronised tightening. 

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