Quote on Market Wrap 21st March, 2026 from Mr. Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd
Below the Quote on Market Wrap 21st March, 2026 from Mr. Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd
Flat Week with Negative Bias Amid FII Outflows and Persistent Global Uncertainty
Market Summary
Markets ended the week on a largely flat note with a negative bias, reflecting underlying caution among participants. The tone remained positive during the first three sessions; however, a sharp decline on Thursday erased the gains, followed by a volatile final session. Consequently, the Nifty declined 0.16% to close at 23,114.50, while the Sensex edged lower by 0.04% to settle at 74,532.96.
Key Market Drivers
During the initial sessions, sentiment was supported by partial resumption of vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz. However, renewed geopolitical tensions following Israel’s attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure pushed crude oil prices back toward recent highs near $119 per barrel. Although prices moderated slightly thereafter, they remain elevated.
Additionally, continued weakness in the rupee against the US dollar and subdued global market cues, particularly from the US, added to the pressure. This was reflected in sustained FII outflows during the week.
On the macro front, domestic data remained mixed. Exports declined by 0.81% to $36.61 billion, indicating weak external demand. WPI inflation rose to 2.13% due to higher input costs. The unemployment rate eased to 4.9%, while direct tax collections grew 7.1% to ?22.8 lakh crore. However, outward FDI declined sharply by 35.88%, reflecting cautious investment sentiment.
Sectoral Snapshot
Sectoral performance remained mixed, reflecting a cautious market stance. Auto, metal, and IT sectors managed to close in the green, supported by selective value buying. In contrast, realty, FMCG, and financials underperformed, primarily due to concerns around rising input costs and demand moderation.
Among the broader indices, midcaps demonstrated relative resilience with marginal gains, while smallcaps declined by over a percent, highlighting selective participation.
Key Events to Watch
The upcoming week is expected to remain data-sensitive amid ongoing global uncertainties. Developments in the West Asia conflict and movements in crude oil prices will continue to act as key external drivers and are likely to dictate the near-term market trend.
On the domestic front, investors will closely monitor HSBC Flash PMI data for Manufacturing, Services, and Composite segments, which will provide an early indication of business activity trends. Additionally, Industrial Production data will be tracked for insights into the strength of economic momentum.
Technical Outlook
Nifty: The benchmark index is likely to remain volatile, with immediate support placed at 22,800. A decisive break below this level could extend the decline toward 22,500 initially, followed by a major support zone near the 200 WEMA around 22,000. On the upside, the 23,400–23,600 zone is expected to act as an immediate resistance band, while the major resistance is placed at 24,000.
Bank Nifty: The index traded choppily in line with the broader market and settled lower by over half a percent at 53,427. It is currently hovering around a critical support zone near the 100 WEMA. Immediate support is seen in the 52,300–52,500 range, while resistance is placed near 54,800, with a stronger hurdle at 55,700. A decisive move beyond these levels will be crucial for directional clarity.
Broader Indices: Broader indices continue to mirror the overall cautious trend. The midcap segment is maintaining relative outperformance compared to smallcaps, which are witnessing sharper declines during down days. The overall trend suggests limited conviction, with investors adopting a selective approach amid elevated volatility.
Strategy Ahead
Given the fragile sentiment, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing global uncertainties, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach. Positioning should favour fundamentally strong large-cap stocks and sectors with stable earnings visibility.
Pharma and select energy stocks may continue to attract interest, while metals could benefit from cyclical support. However, caution is advised in rate-sensitive and oil-linked sectors given elevated crude prices.
Traders should remain nimble, avoid aggressive leverage, and adhere to disciplined risk management practices. With volatility expected to remain high, maintaining a hedged approach with a focus on stock selection will be key until clearer directional cues emerge.
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