Quote on Pre CPI by Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd
Below the Quote on Pre CPI by Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd
"ICRA expects the headline CPI inflation print to harden to 6.1% in October 2026 from 5.5% in September 2026, crossing the upper limit of the MPC’s target range, partly owing to the unfavourable base on account of the GST rationalisation. Inflation in the food and beverages division is set to cross the 8.0% mark in October 2026, amid a broad-based hardening across sub-segments, while core-CPI (Excl. F&B, Electricity, gas & other fuels, and Petrol, Diesel) inflation is expected to rise to 4.6% in the month from 4.3% in September 2026.
If the recent cooling in global crude oil prices sustains, it would likely contain the need for OMCs to hike petrol and diesel RSPs further, thereby curtailing another round of inflationary pressures in the economy. Nevertheless, ICRA expects the CPI inflation to average at 5.2% in FY2027, albeit with the H2 FY2027 readings centred around 5.9%."
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