Quote on Research commentary for expiry today by Anand Shendge, Deputy Vice President-Derivative Analyst, Bajaj Broking
Below the Quote on Research commentary for expiry today by Anand Shendge, Deputy Vice President-Derivative Analyst, Bajaj Broking
FII Activity
FIIs continue to show a bearish inclination, adding 1,802 long vs 9,898 shorts in index futures.
The long–short ratio at 0.13 remains extremely low, reflecting weak bullish conviction.
Simultaneous build-up on both sides signals a volatile, non-directional phase rather than a trending market.
Higher short exposure indicates downside risk remains intact unless positioning shifts.
A short covering rally or meaningful long build-up is required for a shift in market sentiment.
Nifty outlook
Nifty Synthetic Futures are positioned at 24,157, closely aligned with the max pain level of 24,100 for the weekly expiry.
Call OI concentration at 24,200–24,300 is capping the upside and acting as a strong resistance.
Put writing at 24,000–24,100 is providing immediate support to the index.
Slight in-the-money put writing at 24,200 indicates a mild positive undertone.
The immediate trading range is 24,000–24,300.
A break below 24,000 can trigger fresh downside momentum.
Holding above 24,000 keeps the bias sideways to mildly positive.
A move above 24,300 may lead to a short covering rally.
Bank Nifty
Call and put writers are spread across 55,000–55,500, keeping the index range-bound.
However, a significant concentration of both call and put OI at 55,500 makes it a key deciding level.
Bank Nifty futures are currently positioned at 55,153. The 55,500 put writers appear trapped, and any unwinding from this level may push the index lower.
A reclaim above 55,500 could force call writers to unwind positions, triggering a short covering move.
Until either side of the range is breached, the index is likely to remain in consolidation with a cautious undertone.
Conclusion
* Markets are likely to remain range-bound with high volatility for weekly expiry
* Key levels to watch: Nifty 24,000–24,300, Bank Nifty 55,000-55,500.
* A decisive breakout backed by option writer position unwinding will drive the next directional move.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
