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Below the Quote on WPI by Rahul Agrawal, Principal Economist, ICRA Ltd

"The WPI inflation unexpectedly hardened to a series high of 9.9% in June 2026 from 9.7% in May 2026, amid a higher-than-expected fuel and power print. Food inflation surged to an 18-month high of 6.1% in June 2026, pushing up the headline print by as much as 43 bps relative to May 2026, which was partly offset by the non-food components of the WPI. Core WPI expectedly eased to 7.5% in June 2026 from 7.7% in the previous month, amid some sequential softening in commodity prices.

Wholesale prices across most food items have witnessed a hardening in their YoY inflation prints in early-July 2026 relative to June 2026, suggesting that the WPI-food inflation is likely to inch up somewhat in the ongoing month. While global commodity prices, including oil, have largely cooled on an average in July 2026 so far from the levels seen in June 2026, the escalation in tensions in West Asia has resulted in some rebound in prices in the recent sessions, posing upside risks. ICRA expects the YoY WPI inflation to print at an elevated 9.0% in July 2026, albeit lower than 9.9% seen in June 2026.

Thereafter, trends in global commodity prices and the progress of the Southwest Monsoon would influence the WPI inflation trajectory in the remaining part of the fiscal, with the latter particularly impacting food inflation, which would also see some upward pressure on account of a low base over the next few months."

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