U.S. Sugar Supplies Rise as Crop Risks Support Prices by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is raised by 218,816 STRV to 14.476 million on higher production and imports, while ending stocks reach 1.904 million STRV and the stocks-to-use ratio stands at 15.15%. For 2026/27, supply increases 168,518 STRV as higher beginning stocks and imports outweigh lower production. Beet sugar output is forecast at 4.791 million STRV, while Louisiana cane sugar production rises to 2.266 million STRV. Florida production falls amid mealy bug infestation and earlier freeze damage. U.S. ending stocks are projected at 1.865 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising to 14.84%. Mexico production and exports also increase.
Key Highlights
- U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply rises 218,816 STRV to 14.476 million on higher production and imports.
- U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks reach 1.904 million STRV, with stocks-to-use ratio at 15.15%.
- U.S. 2026/27 supply increases 168,518 STRV despite lower projected domestic sugar production.
- Florida sugar output declines amid mealy bug infestation and previous freeze-related crop damage.
- Mexico 2025/26 sugar production rises to 5.325 million MT, boosting ending stocks and export availability.
U.S. sugar prices are likely to remain supported despite higher projected supplies, as crop risks in key producing states and strong import demand provide a bullish counterbalance. For 2025/26, total U.S. sugar supply is raised by 218,816 STRV to 14.476 million, driven by higher domestic production and imports. Beet sugar production increases 71,959 STRV to 5.068 million, while imports rise 146,857 STRV to 2.843 million.
Higher imports reflect increased high-tier tariff entries, including stronger raw sugar and specialty sugar inflows. High-tier specialty imports are expected at 301,469 STRV, indicating robust demand. Despite higher supply, total use remains unchanged and ending stocks are projected at 1.904 million STRV, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 15.15%.
For 2026/27, U.S. sugar supply is raised another 168,518 STRV as higher beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production. Beet sugar output is projected at 4.791 million STRV, down 30,210 from the previous estimate. Louisiana cane sugar production, however, is raised by 100,023 STRV to 2.266 million.
Florida remains a key downside risk for production. Cane sugar output is reduced following processor reports, with NASS forecasting Florida sugarcane production at 16.598 million tons, down from 17.573 million tons last year. Processors report significant crop damage from mealy bug infestation, while February's freeze had already affected plant cane development.
U.S. 2026/27 ending stocks are projected at 1.865 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising to 14.84% from 13.50% previously. In Mexico, 2025/26 sugar production increases to 5.325 million MT following final-season reporting. Ending stocks rise to 1.259 million MT, including 150,000 MT of below-99.2 polarity sugar available for licensed U.S. exports. Mexico's 2026/27 exports are also increased, while shipments to the U.S. remain projected at 1.152 million MT.
Higher U.S. supplies temper the bullish outlook, but Florida crop damage, strong specialty imports and firm stocks-to-use ratios could keep sugar prices supported.
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