Weekly Broader Outlook 23rd March 2026 by GEPL Capital Ltd
NIFTY 50 : 23114 weekly change (-0.16%)
Inference & Expectations
* As tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate, Brent crude has gained significant attention, currently hovering around $112. This surge in crude prices is weighing on equity markets, given their typically inverse relationship, thereby impacting overall market sentiment. The index has now extended its decline for the sixth consecutive week, consistently forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a sustained downtrend. It continues to trade below its 100 -week EMA, reflecting cautious sentiment and reinforcing a “sell on rise” strategy amid prevailing market volatility. Furthermore, the MACD indicator shows a declining histogram, signaling a lack of upside momentum and suggesting that bullish strength remains subdued in the near term.
* For Traders: Short positions may be considered at rise toward 23300. Then index holds downside potential towards 22700 & 22500. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss should be placed at 23650 on a closing basis.
* For Investors: Investors can consider accumulating at 22500 - 21900 zone. The target for this investment is set at 28600 level, offering significant upside potential.
MIDCAP 150: 20226 weekly change (-0.03%)
Observation
The Nifty Midcap 150 Index has been exhibiting a lackluster performance since September 2024, reflecting a phase of sustained underperformance. On the monthly timeframe, the index has slipped below its key 20-month EMA, indicating a deterioration in longterm trend strength.
* On the lower timeframes, the index continues to form a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, while consistently trading below its 200 DEMA, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend and absence of meaningful recovery.
* Momentum indicators further support this view, as the MACD shows a declining histogram along with a softening MACD line, highlighting the lack of buying interest and fading momentum.
* Market breadth also remains weak, with only 45 out of 150 stocks trading above their 200 DEMA, while the remaining 105 stocks are below this key level indicating poor participation and broad-based weakness within the index.
NIFTY SMALLCAP 250: 14791 weekly change (-0.44%)
Observation
* The Nifty Small Cap 250 index has been underperforming since September 2024, reflecting a phase of sustained relative weakness. In February 2026, the index decisively breached its rising channel, signaling a breakdown in its broader structural setup on higher timeframes.
* On the weekly scale, the index continues to form a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms, indicating a well-established downtrend. It is also trading below its 50-week and 100-week EMAs.
* Market breadth further reinforces this weakness, with only 45 stocks trading above their 200-day EMA, while the majority of constituents remain below this key long-term average indicating broad-based selling pressure across the index.
* Additionally, the MACD momentum indicator remains below the equilibrium line, suggesting a continued absence of bullish momentum and reinforcing the negative bias in the near to medium term.
SEBI Registration number is INH000000081.
Please refer disclaimer at https://geplcapital.com/term-disclaimer
