Yesterday the index moved closer to its 5 DEMA level of 23040 - Tradebulls Securities Pvt Ltd
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Yesterday the index moved closer to its 5 DEMA level of 23040. On daily scale the current move appears to be a follow up move post the exhaustion gap, which was supported by a panic flush candle formation. With RSI now rebounding from its oversold zone and ADX gradually declining from its elevated levels, indicate the possibility of a short-term relief rally within the ongoing downtrend. However, the broader market structure remains weak, continuing to follow a clear lower high–lower low pattern, indicating a sustained downtrend. While daily indicators are stretched and may trigger a temporary bounce from current levels, a meaningful or durable reversal would require either a strong bullish signal on the weekly chart or a decisive gap reclaim above 23850. On the macro front, elevated USD/INR levels, firm crude prices above $90 per barrel, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to act as key overhangs, limiting upside potential. For now, the preferred strategy remains to sell on rise until the index trends within the broad range of 23500 to 22500. Traders should avoid aggressive long positions and focus on disciplined risk management along with appropriate hedging strategies
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